50% To 60% Of 'Lost' Linear TV Ad Spend Going To AVOD Platforms

While weak performance of linear TV platforms has resulted in marketers shifting to other media, only around 50% to 60% of those budgets are going to new, associated premium video-on-demand advertising (AVOD) platforms -- many of which are owned by legacy TV network groups -- according to estimates from MoffettNathanson Research.

The research company says the remaining ad dollars have gone to digital platforms, including YouTube and social media. 

MoffettNathanson estimates AVOD platforms reached $8 billion in ad spend for 2021 and projects they will hit $22 billion in 2022.

With current total TV yearly advertising coming in at around $73 billion, MoffettNathanson estimates that $13 billion was “lost” in TV ad budgets in 2021 -- and projects that total will grow to $37 billion in 2025. These results are calculated on TV maintaining its share of nominal U.S. gross domestic product, which it says is 0.38%.



The research firm estimates that AVOD will see 30% compound growth over the next five years. For 2022, it expects the business to be $11.1 billion in advertising spend, and $14.9 billion in 2023.

For this year, Hulu is estimated to get a 34% share of the whole AVOD business, according to the company, followed by Roku at 14%; Pluto TV with 12%; Peacock at 11%; and for other AVOD platforms, a collective 18% share.

But these shares are likely to see big changes.

MoffettNathanson says: “With Disney introducing an ad-supported Disney+ offering (not currently reflected in our estimates), and Amazon likely becoming more serious about the AVOD space, there is risk that existing AVOD leaders will lose share as the market becomes more competitive.”

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