• by Wayne Friedman , June 16, 2022

The potential for a recession has lowered local advertising-spending projections, according to BIA Advisory services, which now estimates $167.4 billion for 2022 -- $5.9 billion lower than the amount estimated in an earlier report.

Still, this local ad-dollar level would now be up 22% from $137.5 billion a year ago, according to BIA.

The lower local advertising spend for automotive marketers projected remains a major negative factor. For the entire automotive industry, estimates have been lowered to $12.4 billion (from $13.8 billion). Still, there will be auto-spend growth of 5.5% versus 2021.

“The year did not start as strong as we had anticipated, making for a difficult first two quarters as some expected advertising spend started to retract,” said Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and  chief economist of BIA Advisory Services.

Fratrik pointed to the higher cost for consumer goods, rising gas prices, and inflation.

The good news is a strong political ad year, more consumer spending on leisure and recreational activities and higher spend on online gambling local advertising.

The $167.4 billion total breaks down into $88 billion for traditional media and $79 billion for digital media.

Traditional over-the-air TV now is estimated to grow 30% to $20.4 billion from a year ago, while traditional radio will add 5% to $11.2 billion.

A big part of this is political advertising. BIA estimates local political advertising spending to be slightly higher than the previous estimate of $8.6 billion.

The biggest growth category -- local over-the-top video advertising -- is expected to rise 57% to $2.02 billion.

Local cable is projected to be 6% higher to $6.5 billion, with local TV-related digital media revenue adding 19% to $1.9 billion and local TV-related OTT advertising up 54% to $2.0 billion.