• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, December 3, 2024

Dentsu this morning released its annual ad-spending forecast, markedly upgrading its growth estimates for both its U.S. and worldwide outlooks through 2027.

Dentsu now estimates global ad spending will expand 6.8% this year -- an increase of 2.2 percentage points from its last release in December 2023.

Its 2025 and 2026 forecasts (see above) also show significant upgrades, while it issued its first long-term projection for 2027.

While somewhat more tepid, Dentsu also boosted its U.S. ad-growth projection nearly a point for this year, upgraded 2025 and 2026, and released its first projection for 2027 (see below).

“Despite the current worldwide geo-political instabilities and economic outlook, in 2024 we can see how significant major political and sporting events are for creating positive growth in ad spend," Dentsu Global Practice President - Media Will Swayne said in a statement, referring to the impact of 2024's quadrennial ad-spending boosts.

Going forward, he said Dentsu also has conducted its first "deep dive analysis into market GDP and population" to account for "new alternative ad spend benchmarks," which help explain the upward revisions for non-quadrennial stimuli years 2025, 2026 and 2027.

That said, Swayne also alluded to ad-spending ROI challenges, noting: "Audiences are receiving an increasing volume of ads, so finding new ways to drive ad effectiveness has never been more important. We are seeing an increased focus on planning and buying for attention, over pure reach, as more brands seek to maximize their return on investment and capitalize on the attention economy tools available to them.”

While Dentsu is the first of the Big 4 agency holding companies to release an annual updated forecast, other majors are expected to do so on Monday.

In the meantime, MediaPost has updated its worldwide and U.S. ad consensus below and at bottom, based on Dentsu's revisions.