The Advertising Research
Foundation’s Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement (CIMM) this morning announced plans for a new industry study analyzing the impact that new TV advertising currencies might have on its
stakeholders -- both buyers and sellers.
The initiative, which is being led by independent consultants Manish Bhatia
and Josh Chasin, who happen to be former heads of research at old-school media currency providers (check their LinkedIn profiles), will focus on
the explicit economics of a new advertising currency supply chain, including:
Costs to advertisers, agencies and media.
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Revenue models for the currency providers.
The
“competitive dynamics” of a multi-currency marketplace.
What the initiative will not do is assess what constitutes a currency. That will be up to the
marketplace to determine, including various elements of testing, assessment, certification and accreditation by bodies ranging from the U.S. JIC to the Media Rating Council, and especially -- and
ultimately -- customers themselves.
More details will be unveiled during the CIMM East conference in New York City next week, but the time frame -- including when and how the
findings are released -- currently is “to be determined.”
What is a likely going-in scenario, however, is what one of the end-result presumptions is: that there
ultimately will be two surviving TV advertising marketplace currencies, meaning there will be a shakeout among long-standing default currency Nielsen (and its new Big Data + panel) service, and the
U.S. JIC’s three alternative currencies “certified” as being "transactable" in the U.S. TV advertising marketplace: Comscore, iSpot and VideoAmp.
Comscore just last
week was also named the TV audience data provider for the Association of National Advertisers’ ambitious cross-media measurement solution, Aquila, which has its own implications for the
advertising currency marketplace, but so far has not actually positioned itself as one.
Aquila likely is above that fray, serving as a meta-level understanding for brands to conduct analyses
of unique reach and unduplicated frequency to adjust their strategic planning, mix models, and the client briefs they give to their media-buying agencies and in-house buying units.
Interestingly, the CIMM initiative’s Chasin recently was named Aquila’s Chief Research Officer, although he is doing that under the auspices of his own consultancy, KnotSimpler
Inc.
Aquila aside, what is most interesting about the new CIMM economic analysis is the presumption of a two-currency marketplace outcome. That’s interesting for a couple of
reasons, including the fact that the advertising and media-buying industry historically has had those kinds of duopolies in the past:
Arbitron and Nielsen in local TV audience measurement.
Nielsen and Comscore in the early days of online
audience measurement.
Nielsen and a long litany of attempted startup rivals in national TV audience measurement.
Mediamark Research Inc. (MRI) and Simmons in magazine audience measurement, as well as overall media planning research.
History suggests duopolistic marketplace currencies are the most cost-effective in terms of what the marketplace can afford, as well as sparking enough competition to foster
continuous research innovation.
More than two would create both extraneous marketplace costs (or at the very least, exposure for private or public equity underwriting them), as well
as more marketplace confusion about what the currency actually is.
Less than two would create a monopoly in which customers have little leverage negotiating costs, although it
simplifies what all sides go to market with.