Commentary

NFL's First Week: Big Data Effects - Or Otherwise?


The NFL now has the promise that Nielsen’s “Big Data + Panel” measurement will be boosting NFL game ratings for many TV networks.

So what about the league’s opening first week? Remember that in-game competition -- and specific big-brand team matchups -- can also be a factor.

The bottom line is that early first-week results show a mixed picture.

In airing a doubleheader in its opening week, for example, CBS witnessed a 15% high in its overall Sunday afternoon coverage to 20.4 million viewers versus a year ago.

Its first game of the afternoon (Pittsburgh Steelers-New York Jets) posted 17.1 million viewers, with its late-afternoon second game (Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers) notching 23.9 million.

NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” (Buffalo Bills-Baltimore Ravens) came in at 12% over a year ago to 24.7 million viewers -- its highest Sunday opening game in three years.

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It should be noted that in addition to the big changes coming with Nielsen’s “Big Data + Panel,” NBC factored in analysis from Adobe Analytics, which accounted for 3.0 million average viewers. This added in results from all digital platforms: Peacock and NBC Sports Digital. Without Adobe data, just Nielsen measurement means the game posted 21.7 million viewers.

Earlier in the week, NBC’s “NFL Kickoff” game (Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles) last Thursday averaged 28.3 million, with 5.0 million coming from Adobe Analytics. NBC’s weekend average 26.5 million for the two games -- up from 25.4 million a year ago.

Fox earned 17.9 million for its one-game opening week. A year ago Fox had a doubleheader (23.9 million and 18.6 million) averaging 21.3 million. That said, Fox says it had its best results for a singleheader opening week since 2015.

And what about YouTube -- and its special Sao Paulo, Brazil game featuring the Los Angeles Chargers beating perennial Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs? That game pulled in 16.2 million U.S. viewers -- and 17.3 million globally.

Of the results so far --- we're still waiting on ABC/ESPN “Monday Night Football” game viewing data -- the average NFL game through three legacy-based TV networks groups (CBS/Paramount; Fox Corp. (Fox Television Network/Fox One; NBC/Peacock) is 17.9 million, which are slightly higher than the total season average of a year ago -- 17.5 million.

So what did Nielsen’s new measurement actually mean to the biggest regular U.S. TV series? These early results are not conclusive enough.

We would seem to need more data from Nielsen’s Big Data in the weeks to come.

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