Google is expected to overtake OpenAI in 2027 based on its existing market share in traditional search and its ability to make the technology more accessible to less tech-savvy users.
A closer look at AI-based search and those using AI models prompted Emarketer to release revised growth predictions on market share and use for the next few
years.
Emarketer is now forecasting 161.5 million U.S. monthly generative AI users in 2026 -- 8.6 million more than its March 2026 estimate of 152.9 million projected.
Female and senior users are forecast to drive change through easier-to-use interfaces, and the integration of AI into familiar products including search engines, smartphones, workplace tools, and
consumer applications has reduced barriers to adoption and prompted older generations and others with less technical knowledge to experiment or begin using the tools.
This trend will take AI
beyond traditionally young, male base with AI use increasing from 49.4% of U.S. internet users in 2025 to 55.1% in 2026.
The most
dramatic shift will occur among female users, whose adoption rate is forecast to surge from
36.6% to 48.1%.
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This surge will rapidly close the gender adoption gap, narrowing it from 12.8 percentage points in 2025 to
7.0 points in 2026, and to just 1.7 points by 2030.
The estimates and forecasts are based on
Emarketer's analysis and include quantitative and qualitative data curated from public companies, government agencies, research and media firms, and interviews with expert executives in relevant
fields.
While Google will gain market share based on its traditional search use, OpenAI ChatGPT’s reach is projected to rise from 32.3% of U.S. internet users in 2025 to 37.8%
in 2026 and 45.1% by 2030, although its chat service is expected to see continued declines in users.
AI-based search will become the search experience, with Google AI Mode expected to
lead -- rising from 9.7% of U.S. internet users in 2025 to 33.0% in 2026 before overtaking ChatGPT in terms of monthly users in 2027. Some 58.5% will use this platform by 2030.
Gemini
will strengthen Google's position as it rises from 20.9% of U.S. internet users in 2025 to 28.6% in 2026 and 37.9% by 2030. The gap between Gemini and ChatGPT will narrow from 11.4 percentage
points in 2025 to 7.1 points in 2030.
Emarketer also estimated Microsoft Copilot will lose share and Perplexity from Perplexity AI will lose users.
Microsoft Copilot’s market share will rise from 13.0% in 2025 to 15.1% in 2026 and 18.3% by 2030, but its growth will trail the overall market, causing it to lose share of users.
Perplexity's share of users will decline starting this year, falling from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.2% by 2030.
SpaceXAI's AI platform Grok will reach 7.2% of U.S. internet users
by 2030.
The declines will also fuel Anthropic Claude's growth -- more than doubling in 2026 to 7.4% and reaching 12.0% by 2030.
The upgrade to this forecast reflects
growth that began in 2026, when product improvements, advertising around the Super Bowl, and a high-profile political dispute that sharply raised consumer visibility.