Contrary to conventional wisdom, "The vast majority of digital video ad dollars are not coming from TV," according to Randy Cohen of Advertiser Perceptions, who said the main source of dollars is digital display. Overall 86% of dollars going to digital video are coming from sources other than TV budgets.
Stay tuned. There is abundant evidence key bellweather brands intend this year and more so next year to shift linear TV ad and marketing (Earned Media) dollars in addition to digital display spend to Video (online, mobile and connected devices) and Advanced TV (IPTV, addressable, and interactive).
While not signaling a poor TV Upfront this year, forward brand and media planning with these same brand spenders suggests a real willingness and--in some cases a desire--to invest away from linear advertising on the traditional TV networks in search of better value.
Some of what seems to be driving this includes early Video success (at modest scale) and the promise of: relevant audience addressability; better, more brand-relevant campaign and content analytics including cross-media measurement; demonstrated medium effectiveness; the availability of performance-based pricing; improved reach (incremental and total), explicit social media benefits for brands; improved buying and execution efficiency; and more premium content, often contextually relevant.
Keep in mind that a shift of just 5% of annual US TV ad spend doubles the size of the entire Video and Advanced TV ad market. Count on it...just not this year.