Google dominates the search ad market today, but eMarketer’s latest forecast shows that within the next two years, Google’s revenue share will fall and Amazon’s will rise.
Overall, the U.S. search ad market will grow nearly 18% to $55.17 billion in 2019, of which Google will take 73.1% share, about $40.33 billion. By 2021, Google’s share will drop to 70.5%, according to eMarketer.
This year, Amazon will take 12.9% of paid-search market share in the U.S. The company surpassed Microsoft in 2018 to become the second-largest ad platform in the U.S. Microsoft, which now ranks No. 3, follows with 6.5%. Verizon Media ranks No. 4 at 2%. Yelp ranks No. 5 at 1.8%.
Amazon got a boost from product searches, as more advertisers attempt to capture the attention of consumers searching for information on products. Capturing mindshare doesn’t necessarily require consumers to make a purchase. They just need to spend time viewing the ad.
In 2019, Amazon’s search business will grow nearly 30% compared with the prior year, boosting net search revenue to $7.09 billion. Amazon’s share will reach 12.9% this year, rising to $9.27 in 2020, and 15.9% in 2021.
eMarketer estimates Amazon will become the only company whose share will grow during the next several years.
Google will capture 37.2%, or $48.05 billion, of all U.S. digital ad spend this year -- down from 38.2% in 2018, according to eMarketer. Amazon will take 8.8% -- up from 6.8%, respectively. Microsoft and LinkedIn will take 3.8% this year, down from 4.1% in 2018. Verizon also will fall to 2.9% this year, from 3.4% in 2018.
Mobile ad spending in the U.S. will grow 22.3% this year to $87.06 billion. Mobile represents an increase in share of total U.S. digital ad spending, reaching 67.3% this year. Google will take 33.0% of all U.S. mobile ad dollars this year, which Facebook will take 30.8%.