Netflix Xmas NFL Games Projected To Earn $185M In Ad Revenue: Analyst

NFL's deal to give Netflix two high-profile exclusive Christmas Day games will be a major boost for its advertising-sales effort.

This could generate $185 million in combined advertising revenue -- a projected top $50 CPM (cost-per-thousand viewers), according to Guggenheim Securities. 

This could come at a total cost of between $200 million and $250 million. These projections include all Netflix streaming options, both premium and ad-supported. 

Viewing estimates for each game could pull in an average 22 million viewers -- roughly 75% of the average broadcast audience (including a 3% annual core NFL game growth), writes Michael Morris, media analyst for Guggenheim Securities.

The $50 CPM would be a major premium over what advertisers are currently being charged for streaming ad inventory. 



For example, Guggenheim CPMs estimates for Amazon’s streamer Prime Video -- which has “Thursday Night Football” -- ranges from $30 to $35.

“Our advertiser conversations indicate an appetite to make Netflix buys -- even at premium CPM’s (lowering average CPM by mixing in more YouTube),” writes Morris. “By expanding its ad inventory to include live NFL games, we believe that the company could further serve this robust demand potentially pushing pricing even higher.”

Similar to other exclusive streaming playoff/special game deals -- one with Peacock (last year’s “Wild Card” NFL game) and Amazon (a “Black Friday” game, with two exclusive playoff games next year) -- Netflix’s cost will be around $1.89 per viewer, based on an projected 22.1 million total viewers.

By comparison, two playoff games for the 2024-2025 season on Prime Video are estimated to cost around $1.93 per viewer.

On Wednesday the NFL struck a three-season partnership bringing holiday games to Netflix. For the 2024 season the deal includes streaming two Christmas Day games. Netflix will then run at least one holiday game in 2025 and 2026 as part of the exclusive deal.

This story has been updated.

1 comment about "Netflix Xmas NFL Games Projected To Earn $185M In Ad Revenue: Analyst".
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  1. Ben B from Retired, May 15, 2024 at 11:02 p.m.

    Which will be a flop Christmas games should be on CBS, Fox, & NBC those networks should demand those games. TNF is a flop on Amazon which should also air live on NFL Network and not replayed at late at night. NFL needs to be on over the air for the national games as I have said NFL games on streaming only have clealy been flops since the NFL & streaming service spin the numbers the viewers aren't there I don't count views for those that just scroll from those sports and have no interest in them.

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