• by Wayne Friedman , Yesterday

National TV advertising revenue (broadcast/cable network and syndication) is estimated to sink 11.4% to $35.3 billion this year -- with national pure-play connected TV platforms such as premium streamers rising 26% to $7.8 billion, according to projections from Madison and Wall.

Total national TV advertising revenue (including CTV) will fall 6.3% in 2025 (6.1% excluding political advertising) to $43.2 billion.

Although Brian Wieser, media analyst of Madison & Wall, sees the advertising revenue share of connected CTV for national TV networks rising to a 23% share in the fourth quarter 2025 versus 17% share in the fourth quarter 2024, he says:

“For the year, CTV will be relatively flat because of last year’s political spending, but excluding its growth should be closer to 10%. Overall, including national, local and connected TV ad inventory, we continue to expect a low single digit level of ongoing declines on an ex-political basis for the medium.”

Wieser’s pure-play CTV platform data estimates exclude YouTube.

Local broadcast and cable TV advertising revenues -- will see major declines as expected, coming off the big political Presidential election 2024 year -- dropping 27.2% to $17.3 billion for all of 2025. Taking out political ads, the decline is just 3.5%.

In 2024, local TV took in $6.6 billion in political advertising. This year -- an off-political season with significantly less political advertising -- $750.6 million is projected.

Going forward, Wieser believes a better measure for TV in general is to look at all legacy TV businesses -- national, local, digital platforms (including CTV) -- in total.

“Because of the increasingly blurry lines between what is considered national and what is considered local -- a connected TV buy on a national platform may tap into the local markets that local stations otherwise served exclusively -- we are increasingly of the view that the combined local and national total, ex-political, is the right headline number for the medium.”

For that view, national/local TV/CTV advertising for the entire year of 2025 is estimated to sink 13.5% to $60.5 billion -- down 5.4% -- without the big political advertising revenues of a year ago.