An earlier March 2025 estimate projected that core
local U.S. advertising would rise 6.1% without political ads to $170.9 billion.
Including strong political advertising comparisons to a year ago -- primarily from the 2024 Presidential
election advertising season -- local advertising is now projected to sink 2.4% to $168.9 billion.
This was projected to rise 6.1% in a March 2025 estimate to $171.4 billion.
The
downgrade is the result of tougher economic factors that lie ahead, BIA says, including current lower consumer sentiment, more tariffs to come (average around 10%), high interest rates, and tight
credit conditions, which the consulting firm says has increased the pressure on across many local advertising categories.
Core over-the-air (OTA) local TV advertising will decline 4.2% to
$14.3 billion in 2025. Core local connected TV/OTT will improve 29% (to $3.3 billion), while TV-based digital platforms will grow 4% (to $2.0 billion).
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Factoring in political TV advertising
results, there will be a strong and expected 25% decline to overall (OTA) spend -- $14.6 billion. CTV/OTT will sink 6%, with digital down 10%.
Political TV advertising in 2024 amounted to an
estimated $4.84 billion.
Local advertising share comparison of digital media and traditional media show the former still has a big edge -- at 53.6%, versus digital ($90.6 billion) to 46.4%,
traditional media ($78.3 billion) -- when it comes to all advertising (core and political).
“Ad growth has slowed down slightly as businesses implement more cautious spending strategies
and optimize their channel allocations,” said Senan Mele, vice president/forecasting and data analysis for BIA in a press release.
Other data show that mobile will rise 9.4%, while
direct mail and out-of-home will each add 1.6%.
Major growth local ad categories include real estate (10.4%, restaurants/food (7.8%) and finance/insurance (4.0%). Local advertisers that will
see major declines include media (2.2%), healthcare (0.5%), and general services (0.3%).