• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 10 hours ago

Although sports continues to make ever larger inroads into TV and streaming platforms, the majority of content spend of seven major media companies will still be centered on non-sports entertainment programs, according to one market analysis.

By 2028, around 20% to 40% of spending among three legacy media companies -- Paramount Skydance (including Warner Bros. Discovery), NBCUniversal and Walt Disney -- will be on sports programming, according to MoffettNathanson Research.

Paramount Skydance is projected to be at 20% of a total $34.1 billion in overall content spend, while NBCUniversal is estimated at 27% of $22.6 billion and Walt Disney is projected to be at 40% of $27.0 billion.

The only outlier here is Fox Corp., estimated at 63% of $9.3 billion.

At the lower end of their respective sports TV content share of their content spend are digital-first companies: Netflix (6% of $20.9 billion) and Amazon Prime Video (19% of $14.5 billion).

These estimates also include an expected sharp 50% in the upcoming renegotiation that the NFL will have with five media companies, which would lift overall annual TV rights fees to around $15 billion from $11 billion.

Complicating this process is the FCC, headed by chairman Brendan Carr. It is pushing to possibly stop the NFL's highly valued 65-year-old antitrust exemption -- which allows them to collectively bargain for all its 32 teams.

Carr believes that the NFL on free, over-the-air TV is still permissible, while deals involving streaming platforms are not.

Other big new sports negotiations are starting up in the next two years. These include national TV right deals for Major League Baseball with Fox, ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery and NBC in 2028. There will also be a new deal with the NHL for ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery that year.