• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, Yesterday

Amidst the negotiations now heating up around this year’s upfront advertising market, we wonder specifically where digital-first and streaming platforms will really land. 

Streaming overall is a major factor -- not just with digital-first platforms, but with legacy-TV network-owned streamers.

Could collective share grow to 50% to 55% of  overall upfront dollars -- up from 42% a year ago, an estimate from Media Dynamics for the 2025-26 market?

Drilling down from that overall picture, a major focus is on the big digital-first streaming players -- Amazon Prime Video, Netflix and YouTube. 

YouTube continues to gain overall share of daily video usage -- with around a leading 12% to 13% share, according to Nielsen.

While many may claim it still is not largely "premium" content, significant viewing on the video platform continues to be a factor for brands -- on the big-screen TVs in homes, in prime time, and other dayparts.

Can it move to the next level -- dramatically getting a larger share of traditional TV budgets?

While it has top sports programming like the “NFL Sunday Ticket” and looks to pull away some regular-season games, it missed out of getting some regular-season NBA games in the league's recent contract period.

Amazon Prime Video has a slightly different value proposition -- mostly as a major draw with its ecommerce connections and attribution for needy brands. Sports-wise, it has NFL's “Thursday Night Football” and NBA regular-season games.

Premium entertainment and "must have" brand Netflix -- although seemingly a more quiet player -- estimates $3 billion in advertising revenue for the 2026 year.

Looking down the road, how much more can it get as it looks ahead to where upfront deals are made for the September to August TV season? 

Are there any other advantages? These three companies can offer better "flexibility" and would power up a dramatic shift moving out of the decades-long rigid upfront "option" constraints that remain: Traditionally, there is no option to cancel of any part of an upfront deal for a media schedule that runs in the fourth quarter.

But for media placed for first quarter, there is an option to cancel 25% of those buys. And for media buys in the second and third quarter, there is an option to cancel up to 50%.

And what about frequency concerns? This is always an issue with brands and consumers who see too many of the same ads. If these growing cash-rich digital-first companies could help here, that could be a plus.

One rough industry estimate for this trio may be to pull in a collective 25% share of upfront dollars this period -- around $5.0 billion to $7.5 billion of the entire $24 billion to $25 billion upfront marketplace.

Is that success -- or just a start?