Advertising and marketing hype has become
heavily saturated with the term "agentic buying" for back-to-school purchases, but the distinction between actual transactional data and futuristic projection only becomes more blurred as the
season gets underway.
This year will be artificial intelligence's (AI) first major back-to-school shopping season to introduce agentic agents into the process to help make purchases.
The collaboration really means that parents will use the technology as a smart tool rather than authorizing it as a buyer with a credit card to make the purchase.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates total
back-to-school spending will reach a record-breaking $146.8 billion, the data outlined in its most recent report released this week.
advertisement
advertisement
Back-to-school spend is down
slightly from 67% at the same point in 2025, but remains significantly higher than the 55% reported in 2024.
The NRF survey does not include data or metrics with regard to agentic AI or
machine-driven buying behaviors, but PwC's Back-to-School Consumer Poll suggests that 73% of parents
plan to deploy AI agents somewhere in their seasonal buying plan to research, compare products, budget, or look for promotions.
The major negative drawbacks of back-to-school shopping with AI and agentic commerce center on intense consumer distrust, lack
of physical verification and critical cybersecurity vulnerabilities. While AI offers convenience, data reveals massive pushback from consumers with regard to financial safety and the practical loss of personal control.
This requires media buyers to shift strategies that counter consumer distrust, lack of physical verification and cybersecurity vulnerabilities in AI-driven
back-to-school (BTS) shopping -- not only for the back-to-school season, but for the 2026 holiday season ahead.
Tinuiti's Back-to-School Marketing Study found that 68% of parents are using conversational AI agents like ChatGPT and Gemini to simplify
the buying process.
When parents delegate to AI shopping assistants to do the work, they are prompting them for three specific heavy-lifting
tasks, according to Tinuiti -- with 33% using it to find the best product deals, while 32% use it to compare competing products and 28% use it to summarize product reviews.
Tinuiti’s 2026 Back-to-School Marketing Study confirms that more than two-thirds of
parents plan to actively deploy AI-powered tools for back-to-school shopping this season.
Eighty-five percent of
consumers are now open to collaborating with an AI agent, while nearly three in four say they would trust a personal AI agent more than their best friend to make a purchase on their behalf, according
to Accenture’s Consumer Pulse research.
"Brands must earn relevance with consumers and trust with their AI agents by delivering value that
can be verified, not just promised," according to the research.
Some 74% of consumers participating in Accenture's survey said they would delegate routine
tasks to an AI agent such as deal negotiation or complaint resolution — provided that the agent acts strictly on instruction — and 32% said they would allow an agent to decide what to
buy, provided that they make the payment themselves.
Only 9% said they would be open to an AI agent making fully autonomous purchases, according to Accenture's survey, which leads back
to the question of which category back-to-school shopping now belongs in.
Back-to-school shopping data from RetailMeNot reveals a shift in consumer behavior this year, and what it could mean
for retailers heading into the busiest weeks of the season.
The survey found that families with grade-school children expect to spend an average of $324 per child -- up 83% vs. $177 in
2025.
Those with high school-kids expect to spend $454 on average, up 114% vs. $212 in 2025. College-age shoppers expect to spend $541 on average, down 10% vs. $598 in 2025.
While most
categories will spend more, except for students who attend college, the more interesting finding is how shopper sentiment has evolved.
While spend is rising, concern about finding deals fell
from 39% in 2025 to 27% this year, while concern about staying on budget increased from 29% to 37%.
Consumers appear to have confidence that promotions will be available, but they're
increasingly focused on managing the total cost of back to school shopping.
Some 46% of shoppers had planned to begin shopping in July, extending the back-to-school shopping season.
Clothing and shoes have overtaken supplies as the top purchase category, 48% vs. 43%, signaling a shift in where shoppers expect to spend the most.
Adults ages 30 to 44 remain the
core back-to-school audience, with 76% planning to make purchases this season.
Concerns about staying on budget climbed from 29% to 37%, seemingly to replace concerns about the cost
of supplies, which fell from 50% to 43% this year, compared with last.
In a separate report, Emarketer cites a survey from Jones Lang LaSalle, a major commercial real estate firm,
conducted with 1,022 parents who plan to spend an average of $489 per child on back-to-school shopping this season -- up 11.7% year-over-year (YoY) and well
above the current 3.5% inflation rate.
"The gap between consumers’ stated budgets and their actual spending can be wide, which is why we expect back-to-school
retail sales to rise a far more modest 3.3% this year to $85.42 billion," Emarketer analysts wrote in the note. "Some of that increase will likely be driven by inflation, which is casting a long
shadow on consumer spending patterns, as 64% of parents say it will affect how they shop this season."