In just eight years, we will enter the third decade of the 21st century. What will the media advertising industry look like then? Who will be running the media agencies? Will media buying be completely automated? Here are some prognostications:
The beauty of Web 2.0 is that all the gatekeepers are gone. No longer do we have to get approval from an agent, an editor, a publisher or a broadcaster. No longer does someone have to deem us worthy before our video can become accessible to the public. The playing field has been leveled. And the level playing field takes us right back to where we were: with would-be stars toiling in obscurity, with the likelihood of discovery or popularity near zero, and with the same megahit / long-tail structure that has always existed. All that has changed is the ...
With the passing of a visionary like Steve Jobs, people are asking the obvious questions about who will fill that void. What will happen to Apple? Who will lead the path to the future of technology? Kaila Colbin recently wrote a great article for the Spin on the challenges facing the heir-apparent at Apple, but I want to think wider for a moment. I want to answer the question of who will be the next Steve Jobs from an industrial and business perspective. Jeff Bezos, please step up and take your place at the head of the table.
In theory, I love it when digital budgets get cut. No, really, I'm not crazy. Of course, the budget cuts need to be data-driven decisions -- supported by sophisticated media mix models that predict the impact and outcome of media investments. Sure, that's the way it normally happens... in my dreams.
Twitter allows people to share something of interest -- provided it is 140 characters or less -- to a global audience. Because of this reach and simplicity, the service is growing like a weed and it is now the fourth most popular online property, according to Quantcast. Twitter is used by some of the biggest names in media advertising. Twitter keeps you up to date on what everyone in media and advertising is thinking -- whether it's Irwin Gotlieb at GroupM, Bob Lord at Razorfish, or Bill Koenigsberg at Horizon Media. But despite its growth, Twitter is still not perfect. ...
If you are watching broadcast TV in the year 2011, chances are you've got one or more devices nearby: an iPhone, an iPad, a laptop, even a desktop. Chances are you're "dual-screening," and chances are if you see something that interests or intrigues you, you'll explore further online immediately, while continuing to watch your broadcast. But if you're watching video-on-demand, any ad is an interruption. You are single-screening -- the device is the broadcast -- and if you see something that interests or intrigues you, you have to interrupt your viewing to explore the topic further.
Early last week, HBO announced that HBO Go, its on-demand streaming service, will now be available on Roku set-top boxes. Since the HBO Go on Roku service is only available to those who already have a subscription and availability on their conventional set-top box, some folks are wondering why HBO went to all of the trouble to do this deal. I have some ideas and opinions on the matter, though no inside insight. Here they are:
In my very first marketing class at Syracuse U., I learned that marketing is futile if you don't have your message ironed out. It's a simple idea: if you're going to broadcast something, be sure you can explain it succinctly and clearly. If you can't, then you risk missing the opportunity, or in the worst possible case completely imploding. Netflix was the worst possible case, when a company decides to broadcast a message without thinking it through, and it literally imploded as a result.
There is one phrase -- one mindset -- that holds back more progress, creative thinking and innovation than any other. It promotes complacency and sends a clear message that stifles curiosity and experimentation. Unfortunately, it is also a fairly common saying within organizations: "That's not how things are done around here."
I was recently asked what next year has in store for the media advertising industry. Predicting the future is a fool's errand, but my gut is telling me that if 2011 was the year of mobile, then next year may be the year when television gets the limelight. Here's why: