Although IPG Mediabrands' Magna sees an overall increase of 23% in U.S. advertising revenue for this year -- and a 12% gain in 2022 -- most traditional TV platforms will not fully participate near those hikes.
National TV on broadcast and cable networks -- still the biggest traditional TV platform -- is only expected to grow a modest 7.4% to $40 billion this year.
The second-biggest TV platform -- local TV station advertising -- will slip 4.7% to $17.9 billion. Without those “cyclical events” -- the Olympics and political advertising -- the increase would be 17.9%.
Next year offers another mixed performance. Magna expects national TV on broadcast/cable networks to decline 2.6% -- even with the addition of a 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing and a strongly anticipated midterm political advertising season.
Some of this runs counter to the TV upfront performance that major TV-centric media companies touted, where there were substantial increases of 20% to 30% on the cost-per-thousand viewer pricing.
At the same time, networks only reported slight, single-digit percentage volume gains for the 2021-2022 TV season.
During the upfront selling period, TV network executives talked up the shift of traditional national TV upfront dollars -- anywhere from 20% to 30% -- to new CTV/OTT premium streaming platforms.
Almost all media-selling companies have started premium streamers over the past two years.
Streaming is the big winner for TV this year -- though still smaller in dollar scale. Magna expects connected TV/OTT platforms to see a 34% gain this year to $5.4 billion this year.
In 2022, CTV/OTT advertising revenue is expected to climb another 28.4% -- which would bring the 2022 totals to $6.9 billion in advertising revenue.
Local TV will also gain -- 15.5% -- but this is in contrast to the nearly 5% decline that Magna expects in 2021. Taking out all cyclical event activity, a 2.6% drop is expected.
Wayne, just for the record, national TV time buys also include national syndication as well as unwired networks. Together, these probably account for $3 billion per year in ad spend. In addition, the TV networks and cable channels---mostly the former---sell something like $2-3 billion per year in digital ads on their websites. Most of these dollars come from traditional TV advertisers who often are represeneted on the broadcast and cable networks as well. So national TV ad spend is larger than the $40 billion projected for the broadcast TV networks and cable.