• by Wayne Friedman , June 28, 2022

Rapidly growing connected TV (CTV) ad revenues are expected to climb 35% to $6.41 billion this year -- from "upfront" sales -- and to rise another 35% to $8.14 billion in 2023, according to eMarketer's projections.

This estimate includes all CTV advertising deals made in advance, resulting from the traditional TV upfronts, IAB NewFronts and other events.

Separately, eMarketer says, traditional, linear, prime-time TV upfront ad dollars for the 2022-2023 TV season will be basically flat -- inching up just 0.9% to $19.21 billion from a year ago, and expected to rise another 2.2% to $19.63 billion next year.

Data here includes revenue for broadcast and cable networks and digital video (non-CTV) inventory sold by TV networks.

Looking at the broader picture, upfront digital video spending -- for all dayparts and digital platforms, including CTV, owned by TV networks -- or independent digital video sellers -- is expected to rise 30% to $9.39 billion this year and 24% to $11.63 billion in 2023.

In that year, CTV will comprise 70% of all upfront digital video ad spending ($8.14 billion of the $11.63 billion).

“While these increases show that digital buys are taking a greater share of upfront commitments, the overall upfront TV total will not increase much during our forecast period,” says eMarketer.

It adds: “What’s also clear is that little digital video spending is committed upfront, with nearly 90% of the dollars going to social and programmatic channels outside of the upfronts and NewFronts loop in 2022.”