Following five semi-annual revisions since it was first benchmarked in July 2021, the Big 4 agency holding company forecasting composite for worldwide ad-spending growth for this year has fallen 1.1 percentage points to 4.3%.
The composite -- a simple average of each holding company's percentage growth estimate for total ad spending -- also shows the consensus falling to 5.8% for worldwide growth next year, down from +7.1% when it was first benchmarked in January 2022.
The updated composite follows a series of year-end forecasts released this week by IPG Mediabrands' Magna, WPP's GroupM, Publicis Media's Zenith, and the most recent one released early this morning by Dentsu, which seemed to sum the ad industry's group sentiment up for next year, noting:
"In 2024, advertisers will operate within a challenging macroeconomic background as global growth is projected to slow. Yet, it will be a year of big media moments, with global sports events, such as the Paris Olympics and Paralympics, and major local events, including the U.S. presidential election, boosting investments."
Aside from macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty, and the presence of incremental tentpole ad-spending events, Dentsu also notes that there will be some profound secular shifts taking place in the underlying nature of the ad business:
For the U.S. -- still the world's largest advertising market by a wide margin -- the Big 4 composite has declined 1.1 percentage points to 3.1% for this year, and 1.4 percentage points to 6.8% for total ad-spending growth in 2024 since they were first benchmarked (see below).