Fox-Roku Estimate: Third In Viewing, With 11% Share

Fox Corp.'s acquisition of streaming distributor Roku for $22 billion will give the company a greater share of total TV streaming viewing versus its competitors.

The company will have an 11% share, according to March’s reading of Nielsen’s Media Distributor Index -- and will be behind only YouTube (with 13.5%) and Walt Disney (with 10.5%).

Most recently, Fox had 7.2% share in March, while Roku had 3.8% share.

Fox Corp.'s focus before this announcement had been on maximizing all it could from the linear TV/broadcast-cable TV network businesses. This deal changes all that, says analysts.

‘While such a large deal is clearly a swing for the fences by Fox, the reality is traditional media companies need to be leveraging their excess free cash flow to move into businesses that are better positioned for the rapidly changing environment,” says Jeffrey Wlodarczak, CEO of Pivotal Research Group.

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He adds that this is part of a bigger change -- including moving away from traditional premium content engagement to more bite-sized video.

“Long form content appears to be in the early innings of getting disintermediated by short form content/social media.”

Michael Morris, media analyst for Guggenheim, estimates that total Fox-Roku revenue will be $23.1 billion for 2026 and $23.5 billion in 2027.

Total company cash flow -- earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will climb to $4.3 billion from $3.6 billion.

Madison and Wall estimates the combined company will see around $9 billion in advertising revenue, representing around 14% of all advertising spend in the U.S. and around a 16% share of U.S. streaming ad spending.

Fox Corp. is projected to take in $6.5 billion in ad revenue in 2026 advertising, with Roku at $2.5 billion.

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