• by Sarah Mahoney , September 24, 2026

‘Tis already the season for holiday spending forecasts, a steady drip of predictions that help retailers stock shelves and marketers tweak seasonal messaging.

Many tell the same story: Consumers will spend more, but that doesn’t mean their holiday budget is increasing. They plan to cut back in other areas.

PwC, for example, reports that consumers plan to actually cut their gifting budget to $708, from $721 last year. And they will manage gifting budgets more carefully to protect holiday travel plans.

While holiday spending is typically predictable, this year may not be especially joyful. “Underlying the headwinds faced by retailers are cautious consumers whose spending power is being weighed down by gasoline prices that remain stubbornly high, as well as the impact of tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and labor market participation at a five-year low,” Bain & Co. notes in its forecast. And people have less in savings and more in debt.

Bain & Co. expects holiday spending to rise 4.5% year-over-year, with more than half of that coming from inflation.

Mastercard expects a 5.5% year-over-year increase for the Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 period -- the strongest holiday growth since 2022, a peak inflation year. But about half of that growth will come from higher prices. And

Deloitte forecasts a gain of 4.0% to 4.8%, reaching $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion.  

Other predictions:

Muted volume:  While it may be a merry season in terms of dollar increases, some forecasters expect muted volume. Bain & Co.’s prediction says sales will likely be flat in some categories.

This trend will be especially evident in electronics, where the year-over-year price index for key electronics items has jumped 12.2%. While Mastercard says electronics spending has risen 10.7% this year, Bain expects the category to be flat this season.

Suspicious shoppers: Brands and stores keep raising prices to reflect their costs, but shoppers suspect price gouging. Only 9% of people in a new Intuit QuickBooks survey believe businesses' price increases are fully justified. Nearly half (49%) call them not really, or not at all, justified. And 61% say rising prices are bothering them at least somewhat this season.

AI as price-checker, not buyer: Despite the hype suggesting consumers are stampeding toward agentic AI commerce, the reality is much more basic. About 64% of consumers are using AI to find deals and check prices, but not for the final sale. Only 15% have let AI complete their purchases, Intuit reports, and 50% say they are not at all comfortable with that.

In-store shopping survives:  Mastercard predicts online sales will grow 11% year over year, and in-store shopping will grow a surprisingly strong 3.6%. If that comes true, that would be the best increase for physical retail in four years. Bain expects a more muted 2.5% increase in in-store sales, with the strongest performance coming from the clothing and accessories segment.

A tale of two holidays:  The K-shaped economy will strike again, with gains in the stock market helping higher-income families celebrate, while more people from lower-income households say they’ll cut back on groceries, utilities and healthcare. They are also more likely to say they will take on a side job. Intuit reports that lower-earners are far more anxious about rising prices (35% very concerned, versus just 15% of upper-income shoppers).

Record holiday sales will make for cheerful press releases in January. But for most shoppers, the season won't feel like a spending spree. It will feel like paying more for the same pile of presents.