• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 4 hours ago

For years, connected TV (CTV) has aspired to be a valuable platform for advertisers like search and social. But what if it never ascends to that level?

But is there still value? But perhaps not the true “business outcome” variety.

Analysts have been talking about the inconsistency of CTV signals across publishers -- the data signals used to identify, measure, target, and attribute advertising on CTV not being consistent across streaming platforms, publishers, ad-tech companies, and measurement providers.

On a basic level you can see why. There is a lot of talk about multitasking -- watching a big TV screen with a mobile phone in your hand. But the odds of searching for, or even buying something immediately after watching a commercial on say HBO Max's "The Pitt," are very low.

The experimental TV remote devices that can function truly and completely like a phone are long gone. Television has not suddenly transformed into TikTok.

This is why many believe CTV cannot drive direct business-outcome results for brands the same way search and social media do.

This concern is not a major problem for some national TV advertisers that are simply shifting budgets to CTV from TV.

And that move is where CTV -- in the upper part of the media-buying funnel -- comes in. It could be several days later, for those all important business outcomes and return on investment numbers.

It will eventually lead to search or social interaction by consumers moving on to a brand retail website or approved retailer in engaging and purchasing products and services.

One not-so-secret trend kind of confirms what is really going on with CTV, in that estimate is that overall national TV advertising will be mostly stagnant in the near term.

Some media analysts, like Madison & Wall, keep making the point that national CTV/streaming TV revenue gains -- in absolute dollars -- are coming at the expense of national linear TV revenue declines.

In March, Madison & Wall estimated national linear TV would sink 2% to $27.9 billion with digital TV (legacy TV-owned streamers and digital-first video providers) growing 3.0% to $21.0 billion this year.

Other analysts believe growth for CTV may be harder to come by -- not just with consistently strong strong business-outcome channels -- possibly social or search.

For example, according to a WPP Media global forecast, AI-generated-powered platforms could skyrocket in advertising revenues to $100 billion four years from $5.1 billion currently.

David Nyurenberg, senior vice president of InterMedia Advertising, in a recent column said: “CTV still has technical barriers that don’t exist in the same way on search and social.”

He adds: “By all means, measure outcomes. Optimize toward sales. Make television more accountable.”

So some hope for CTV ahead in the next few years. By how much more?