Local media revenue is on track to reach $137 billion this year and rise to $139.3 billion in 2015, representing a growth rate of 1.6%. The estimates, released Sunday by BIA/Kelsey, also project local online advertising will rise from $31 billion in 2014 to $35 billion in 2015.
Local advertising has become a way for national brands to reach specific target audiences. The estimates are part of the research firm's U.S. Local Media Forecast 2015. Overall, online advertising should account for 25.2% of the total local media revenue in 2015. While online digital will grow 13.1%, traditional media will decline 1.7%. BIA/Kelsey defines the local media advertising marketplace as the media providing local audiences to all types of advertisers.
Among estimates for local ad revenue, mobile will account for $4.3 billion in 2014, rising to $6.6 billion in 2015. Social media revenue should hit $2.5 billion in 2014, rising to $3.6 billion in 2015. The national ad spend in 2014 will reach $5.7 billion in 2014, rising to $7.5 billion in 2015. Search will rise from $7.1 billion in 2014 to $7.2 billion; display, from $4.3 billion to $4.9 billion; and online video, from $2.3 billion to $3.0 billion, respectively.
Mark Fratrik, chief economist, BIA/Kelsey, expects the pace of growth to settle at a 3% compound annual growth rate in the overall local advertising marketplace through 2019. Growth in online and digital advertising revenue will remain strong, with a 12.2% CAGR through 2019, compared with essentially flat revenue for traditional advertising of about -0.5% CAGR) during the same period.