Holiday Season Forecast 2019: $143.8B In Online Spending, $4B On Thanksgiving

Consumers made a whopping $18.2 billion in purchases via smartphones this holiday season, representing 49.5% growth year-over-year (YoY), according to data released Thursday.

Adobe Analytics data released Thursday estimates this is the first Thanksgiving Day to surpass $4 billion in online sales. Estimates put online sales at $4.4 billion by end-of-day today as shoppers step away from dinner tables and divert their attention to shopping for the best deals.

Since Nov. 1, 2019, Adobe estimates put consumer spending at $52 billion online as of 2 p.m. Pacific on Thanksgiving Day, with the company predicting $143.8 billion to be spent online for the 2019 holiday season.

Thanksgiving Day is expected to see the highest revenue share from mobile throughout the four-day weekend. Consumers are using smartphones to make purchases this season more often than ever. Some 34.4% of all e-commerce sales have been made on a smartphone -- up 24.1% YoY. 



Not surprisingly, ecommerce giants that make more than $1 billion in annual revenue have outperformed their smaller counterparts, companies making about $50 million in annual revenue, mostly driven by smartphones.

The smartphone revenue share of larger companies is 10% higher, and they are 70% more efficient at converting customer smartphone browsing time into sales.

Ecommerce giants have seen a 38% boost in sales this holiday season compared to 16% boost for smaller retailers. 

Social media remains a small ecommerce acquisition channel. About 2.7% share of all purchases is initiated from social media, up 21.8% YoY.  The majority of those are done on a smartphone at 60%. Paid-search ads still dominate this space as the top channel with 23.8% share of purchases. 

Overall, between Nov. 1 and 27, consumers spent $53 billion online -- up 16.1% compared with a year ago. All 27 days in November surpassed $1 billion in sales, with eight days bringing in more than $2 billion each. The day before Thanksgiving brought in $2.9 billion, up 22% from the prior year.

Black Friday sales are forecast to reach $7.5 billion -- up 20.5% YoY -- and $9.4 billion in sales, up 19.1%, on Cyber Monday.  

Top products point to toys like Frozen 2, L.o.L Surprise, and Beyblades. Top video games are "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare," "NBA 2K20" and "Just Dance 2020." Then there are electronics such as Samsung TVs, Instapots, and Apple AirPods. 

The buy online and pick-up in-store option, along with curbside pickup options, have generated 33.2% growth YoY. These options give brick-and-mortar retailers a way to compete with online-only retailers.

The average order value (AOV) for BOPIS orders remains lower than overall AOV, $120 compared to $159, but based on Adobe Analytics survey data of more than 1,000 U.S. consumers in October about 82% of BOPIS consumers plan on doing additional shopping in store while picking up their order. 

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