• by Laurie Sullivan  @lauriesullivan, June 10, 2024

Local advertising is forecast to reach $148.9 billion this year, up 3.9% from the prior year, according to data released by Borrell Associates on Monday. The firm estimates local advertising will grow at a 2.2% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) during the next five years.

Borrell analysts predict a year of “healthy” growth for local advertising in 2024, but not as good as previously predicted due to weakness across small-to-medium businesses in the first half of this year.

Corey Elliott, EVP of Local Market Intelligence and chief forecaster at Borrell Associates, expects slower growth for streaming video, and digital video still presents challenges for local businesses.

“Local businesses have been telling us in surveys that they don’t know how to purchase it or how it fits into their marketing plan,” he said. “They aren’t aware that it is less expensive than broadcast TV. It all points to a subdued ramp-up for OTT spending."

Over-the-top (OTT) has been acting like a “jackrabbit,” he said, outpacing all other types of media. It remains the fastest growing form of advertising, and the fourth largest among the 18 different formats tracked by Borrell.

Streaming video advertising – OTT and connected television (CTV) – among local buyers is growing far slower than initially expected this year, with the forecast at 3.9%, topping $23.3 billion.

Local ad spend is forecast to grow 8.1%, topping $20.4 billion.

The largest growth expected is for online listings, which encompasses sites for cars, jobs, merchandise, real estate, and services.

Spending on streaming audio commercials, including podcasting and spots on radio station websites, apps and smart speakers, should grow 7.8% to $1.2 billion.

Targeted display advertising, driven by social media, is forecast to grow 6.2%, reaching $27.2 billion.

Local broadcast TV advertising is forecast to grow 5.9%, reaching $9.9 billion.

The steepest of all media declines are not unexpected. Yellow pages will decline 14.3%, untargeted banner advertising by 8.4%, print newspapers by 6.7%, and cable TV by 6.0%.

Growth rates also are listed for each U.S. market. The data lists more than 200 U.S. markets and 2023/2024 numbers.