Streaming Viewing Estimate: Flat To Slight Gains Through 2026
- by Wayne Friedman , July 9, 2024
Average daily time spent on premium streaming platforms continues to slow and mature -- with estimates of flat to slight growth in the coming years, according to estimates from eMarketer.
One of the exceptions this year is Peacock, which is projected to see a 15% rise to average 15 minutes per day among users 18 years and older who watch Peacock at least once per month.
This expected increase is largely because of the Paris Summer Olympics -- a heavily viewed, 17-day event that comes around every four years. After that, Peacock is projected to drift lower in 2025 and 2026, averaging 14 minutes.
The overall leader among video streaming continues to be YouTube -- averaging 51 minutes per day among users 18 and older -- up 2.6% from 2023.
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Although it is projected to see slower growth in the next two years, to reach 52 minutes in 2026, eMarketer says YouTube has staying power -- yielding a top 9.1% share by the end of 2026 for all CTV/streaming video consumption.
Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max is forecast to stay in the same range as Peacock -- at 16 minutes for 2024 and for each of the next two years.
Disney+ is expected to be virtually flat for this year and for the next two years, at 25 minutes per day -- like its companion streamer, Hulu -- estimated at 38 minutes this year with a slight increase to 39 minutes each for the next two years.
However, Amazon Prime Video -- partly thanks to its less expensive and wide-acceptance ad-support option, which started up this year -- is projected to rise 2.1% in 2024 to 22 minutes, growing 1.6% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026.
eMarketer also expects future NBA programming will drive viewers to the site -- where they would then be likely to seek other related Prime Video content.
This research did not include data projections from these platforms' major streaming competitor Netflix.
Wayne, how can this be? With linear TV on its last legs and cord cutting wiping out cable where will all of that viewing time go? Seriously, of course streaming viewing gains will slow---that's been evident for some time. But flat or only slight growth for the next few years? I'm not so sure I buy that.
Good point Ed. The slow streaming gains will be at the expense of broadcast. It is makin an impact in AU.
John, in the states broadcast TV has a bit of a protecdtive cushion in that 15-16% of our TV homes get over-the-air reception and about a fourth of these only get OTA---meaning broadcast. So cable is more likely to suffer greater losses to streaming as a cost saving mchanism for some consumers than broadcast TV, though both will be affected.
Re those daily time spent figures, as stated they refer only to "users"--- those who watch per day--- not to all adults. For example, if you figure 5 hours of TV per day for adults and You Tube gets 9% of this per Nielsen's Gauge reports, then the daily doasge of You Tube content viewed on a TV set for all TV home adults is only 27 minutes. Which means that only half of all TV home adults watches You Tube on a given day.