• by Laurie Sullivan , 96 minutes ago

Consumers have already spent nearly $79.7 billion online this holiday season in the U.S., up from 7.5% year-over-year (YoY), according to Adobe data released Wednesday. AI chatbots are helping to close deals for consumers.

The data found that shoppers who arrived on a U.S. retail site from an AI service were 30% more likely to convert.

On Wednesday, the company released new data detailing the first 23 days of the November-December online holiday shopping season.

The analysis examined more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.   

Per the Adobe survey of 1,000 consumers conducted in November 2025, 49% of respondents believe they will get the best deals this season during Black Friday.

Shoppers are also “trading up” to higher-ticket items in electronics, for example, compared with trading down last year.

Mobile is making a major contribution to overall sales, with consumers spending $41.3 billion so far this holiday season -- up 8% YoY.

Adobe forecasts that mobile revenue share will hit a record 56.1% this holiday season, while 7 in 10 retail-site visits will take place on mobile devices.

The 2025 holiday season is forecast to become the first trillion-dollar quarter during the holiday season. Adobe forecasts that consumers will spend a record $253.4 billion online this holiday season for the first 23 days in November -- up 5.3% YoY.

Generative AI chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online. In the first 23 days of the season, AI traffic rose by 830% YoY, according to Adobe’s findings. 

Respondents to Adobe’s survey show 32% reported having used AI to help with their online shopping, while 48% reported they have used or plan to use AI specifically for holiday shopping. These tools are primarily used to support research, ideation and inspiration.

While generative AI traffic remains nascent compared with other channels such as paid search or email, there has been a notable uptick this season.

Regardless, AI is reshaping the shopping experience, with 81% of consumers reporting an enhanced shopping experience as a direct result of using these tools.  

Adobe expects offers from many retailers to buy now and pay later (BNPL) to continue to increase during Cyber Week and hit a new milestone on Cyber Monday -- reaching $1.04 billion, up 5% YoY.

BNPL is being driven by mobile shopping, with its share of spend reaching 82.4% vs. desktop so far this season. Per Adobe’s survey, BNPL is being used most in categories including electronics, apparel, toys, grocery and furniture and home goods.   

While the advertising industry has been moving toward mobile for years, key implications include the need for a seamless user experience, a strong omnichannel approach, and personalized ads.

Adobe also measured the impact of marketing investments in social-media platforms. Share of online revenue -- the purchases attributed to social traffic -- rose 29% YoY, up from 5% YoY in the year-ago period. 

Among affiliates and partners, including social-media influencers, growth rose 15% YoY.

Paid search and email continue to drive traffic and sales online, but consumers are increasingly turning to social media to discover and learn about new products, with 53% of shoppers considering a purchase based on a recommendation from a celebrity or social media influencer.

About 83% of shoppers say they use promo codes or cashback sites for holiday shopping. 

The Cyber Week forecast -- the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday -- is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion, up 6.3% YoY.

Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season — and year — at $14.2 billion, up 6.3% YoY.

Black Friday is expected to see higher growth this season, rising 8.3% YoY at $11.7 billion, as consumers embrace earlier deals promoted by U.S. retailers. On Thanksgiving, consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online, up 4.9% YoY.