Despite Massive Concentration Of Seller Power, Brian Wieser Sees No Change In Control Of Ad Biz

1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, April 11, 2023 at 12:19 p.m.

   Joe, I'm a little surprised by this one. Here, Brian is combining all types of ad spending together which suggests ---or implies --- that the media sellers are all competing for the same business---when, in fact, it all depends on whether the ad campaign is a branding one or a sales promotional  or a direct response effort and whether the advertser is a national media user or a local marketer. It also depends on what form of media the sellers are selling. For example, in 2002 were "GE" ( NBC ) and  Viacom competing with Gannett or Bertlesmann? In 2022 did META or Microsoft capture a lot of national TV ad dollars from Comcast ( NBCU) or Disney ( ABC )?
   
   One might argue that it all comes from the same big dollar pot---but it doesn't. Each media seller operates within a well defined competitive set composed of sellers with similar goods for sale. If a media conglomerate owns newspapers, radio sations, TV stations, TV networks/cable channels, magazines, etc. each component hs its own competitive set. These change somewhat from time to time when new media appear---like streaming or social media over the past 20 years. In the case of streaming, it is gradually being integrated with linear TV as both platforms provide the same  form of communications. But social media is not as yet competing with national TV ad sellers,  though it is stealing some business at the local market level from the stations---mostly small budget advertisers. 
   
   As Brian points out, "actual control of the advertising industry hasn't changed all that much over time". And he is right. The huge ad revenues of a very few relatively  new sellers----Alphabet, META, Amazon and Microsoft----- are distorting the comparisons in my ever humble opinion.

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Joe Mandese from MediaPost Inc., April 11, 2023 at 12:24 p.m.
@Ed Papazian: Look at the green dash (digital) vs. blue dash (TV network owners) share of total ad dollars over time (bottom chart) and it might reveal what's happening with the media mix too.
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Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, April 11, 2023 at 1:26 p.m.
Joe, I did note that comparison but I have the same problem. The "Network TV" sellers are not playing on the same field as the digital folks and a more appropriate comparison would take only TV ad spend as the base and then slice it up by top ranked TV time sellers. Here I would think that there is  quite a lot of big seller concentration. For example a recent Alert report we prepared for our MDI Direct  subscribers estimated the degree to which major TV sellers controlled the TV audience---taking linear as well, as streaming into account. We found that the top five TV programmers accounted for 37% of all TV viewing. If we assume that they obtained slightly more than average CPMs this translates into about 40% of the ad dollars. As this is the first time we did this type of analysis I can't give you a figure for ten years ago as a basis of comparison, but I doubt that it would be  very much higher.
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Maximiliano Diaz Gonzalez from Havas, April 12, 2023 at 10:47 a.m.
TOP 10 sellers of advertising, both columns are 2022 so...what is the difference ? 
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Maximiliano Diaz Gonzalez from Havas replied, April 12, 2023 at 10:48 a.m.
Sorry, I see 2002 - 2022 :(
Joe Mandese from MediaPost Inc., April 12, 2023 at 10:51 a.m.
@Maximillano Diaz Gonzalez: Sorry it's not more clear, but yes, 2002 vs. 2022 -- twenty years apart.
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