• by Laurie Sullivan  @lauriesullivan, September 14, 2023

U.S. local advertising is forecast to grow 4.4% to $157.1 billion in 2024, according to data released Friday from Borrell Associates.

The forecast also estimates all 2024 U.S. media digital advertising formats to grow 6.0% -- lower than the projected 7.1% in 2023, with paid-search listings estimated to rise 8%.

Media growth for the year includes:

• Digital video - 9.3%
• Audio - 7.7%
• Local broadcast TV - 9%
• Out-of-home - 3.4%
• Direct mail - 1.7%
• Cinema - 2%

Non-digital advertising formats are forecast to grow 0.4%, after a decline of 4.9% this year.

"There is somewhat of a comeback for traditional forms of media, keyed to a very interesting phenomenon of local businesses becoming more savvy in marketing," Gordon Borrell, founder of Borrell Associates, wrote in an email to Media Daily News. He added that the company has been analyzing this for several years.

The more savvy the marketer, Borell said, the more inclined they are to use direct mail, TV, radio, outdoor, and newspapers.

Although more interest may be tracked in traditional media, it has still endured a decline, although slower than in previous years. Some traditional forms of media that are experiencing declines include newspapers, cable, and radio.

Borrell forecasts a 4% decline in print-newspaper advertising in 2024 compared with 7.8% this year.

The decline in cable advertising is projected to slow to 3.2% next year compared with 5.6% this year.

In radio advertising, the decline is forecast to slow 2.3% in 2024 compared with 2.8% this year.

In August, Borrell’s quarterly SMB Business Barometer showed panelists’ pessimism about the economy had fallen to a level not seen since 2018, two years before the pandemic.

About 13% of Borrell’s August panel -- the lowest in five years -- said they would cut ad spending in the last half of the year.

Long term, Borrell forecasts that traditional forms of media will continue to decline, but at roughly half the rate they experienced in the past four years. Since 2019, the average annual decline for traditional media advertising was 4.5%.

During the next four years, Borrell forecasts average annual declines of 2.3%.

Growth in spending for digital advertising is forecast to slow, from an average annual rate of 8.3% between 2019 and 2023 to 4.4% growth from 2024 to 2027.