TNS Media Intelligence/CMR's forecast was presented Tuesday morning at the beginning of the one-day AdWatch: Outlook 2003 held at the Grand Hyatt in New York City. In a midcourse correction a little bit less than halfway through the year, CMR said that a stronger-than-expected first quarter had boosted ad spending and bolstered its previous prediction. The first quarter's ad spending grew 4.9% and is estimated to rise 4.4% in the second quarter, which ends June 30. CMR said that the second half would increase 4%.
"We think this [first-quarter spending] bodes well for the market, especially when one considers the backdrop," said CMR President/CEO Steven Fredericks. The backdrop includes continued corporate governance complicating business, proposals for campaign finance reform that would change ad spending, rules regarding direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising and the overall effect of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and, to a much lesser extent, the war in Iraq.
Several factors are affecting the market positively, including low interest rates, continued double-digit increases in the Spanish-language market, political spending that may be big even in this off-year and reality television. New brand spending will also push the ad market upward.
"We're encouraged by the progress of 2003," Fredericks said.
Tuesday's CMR forecast provided growth estimates for a number of media: