• by Paul Gough , June 30, 2003

With a second record-breaking upfront on the books, a lagging economy and other media that aren't feeling the same love, that 's the question still facing all media. And in the midst of discussing the issue, a consensus emerged that sooner or later, television wouldn't remain on top.

According to several surveys of advertising spending, television is seeing consistently higher gains quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year than other media. Some magazines are doing well but many - including financial and business-to-business that rely heavily on the economy - aren't doing as well as they did before the economy tanked. Newspapers and the Yellow Pages, hit hard by a drop in classifieds and only now seeing signs of recovery in other ad spending, are also lagging. But television, by the measure of the upfront and the quarterly or yearly reports that come from researchers, seems to be going strong.

But why? Panelists at AdWatch: Outlook 2003 said it was a reach for safety.

"Advertisers are supporting the media that they know have worked for them in the past," said Robin Kent, chairman/CEO of Universal McCann.

A trend toward accountability that began theoretically with ever-better computers and research and caught fire as the economy tightened every penny has also been another factor.

"Return on investment continues to be top of mind," said Steve Blamer, president of Grey Worldwide-New York. "Every dollar has to be justified, every single one."

Yet with the double-digit CPM increases, agencies and advertisers say that they're getting tired with the process. Blamer said that clients have a love-hate relationship with television, constantly asking where money would be spent in an environment without television. Clients concerned about brand positioning and essence are also worried about the rise in costs and the reduction in viewership, particularly among the broadcast networks.

"They're worried about these things but they're continuing to spend heavily against it," Blamer said.

Kent said that clients are looking at their media plan and are asking why they have to keep paying more.

"In the future, television is not going to be the answer to everything," Kent said.

Donald F. Calhoon, executive vice president of marketing at Wendy's International, gave the client's side and a view that would be echoed by General Motors' chief of advertising later in the day. He said that the upfront had become "the ultimate fear factor" and that the fragmentation of media and the way everyone's lives have changed in the past decade has caused Wendy's and other advertisers to find different ways to connect.

"Television in and of itself is no longer enough. To round out the total communication program to your audience we have all had to go to other places," Calhoon said.

Joe Abruzzese, president of advertising sales at Discovery Networks U.S., said that television was really good at building awareness and still was the best way to move product and disputed that the upfront process was broken.

"If television and the advertising process wasn't working for the advertiser, it wouldn't exist," Abruzzese said.