• by Larry Dobrow , May 6, 2003

In the wake of the Newspaper Association of America's annual convention in Seattle last week, a hint of optimism - the first in many a moon - seems to have pervaded the newspaper business.

Noting the "positive feelings" shared by attendees after the conclusion of the conference, NAA president and CEO John Sturm said most newspaper professionals believe the turnaround will begin in earnest in the second half of 2003. "Everybody feels better that we don't have the unsettling cloud of war or conflict over our heads," he noted. "Terrorism, knock on wood, hasn't been a serious concern over the last couple of months. We're sensing that we're making headway on our long-term goal, which is to build readership back up."

Sturm wasn't the only voice of cautious optimism. In his final address as NAA chairman, MediaNews Group vice chairman and CEO William Dean Singleton told attendees, "I really believe this industry is more vibrant, more vital [and] more forward-thinking... than I've seen at any time in my career." He also pointed to recent comments by Credit Suisse First Boston managing director Bill Drewery, who anticipates a strong next five years. The implied message: if the analysts think the industry is in good shape, the industry is probably in pretty good shape.

Outside of big-picture pronouncements about the immediate and distant future of the business, the convention's sessions surveyed a host of issues. Most important to many in attendance was the speech by Federal Communications Commission chairman Michael Powell, who discussed cross-ownership rules. Sturm left the conference feeling optimistic about the possibility that such rules will be eliminated, thus allowing newspapers to buy radio and TV stations in markets in which they publish: "It looks like [the FCC] is going to make a decision that will be largely favorable on or around June 2. Defenders of the status quo have supplied no cogent reasons for retaining the rule."

The NAA also released its 2003 Capital Equipment Expenditures Survey, which revealed that the 260 respondents plan to increase their overall spending on technology and equipment by nearly 10% this year. Total spending should reach $513 million, up from $467 million in 2002.

Finally, the conference was not without the requisite sideshow. On the second day of the convention, news broke that The Hearst Corp., owner of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, was suing Seattle Times parent company The Seattle Times Co. to prevent it from terminating the 20-year-old joint operating agreement between the two papers. "There was a lot to read about newspapers in the newspapers," Sturm quipped.