• by Brian , Gregory Wilson , April 14, 2005

As the relief-effort continues throughout the tsunami-ravaged regions of Southeast Asia, the outcry persists for an early tsunami warning system to be installed in the areas vulnerable to catastrophe.

But if the ad industry's reaction to early warnings is any indication, such a system would only fall on deaf ears. After all, by now we are all familiar with the projections of disaster coming our way.

- By 2009, viewer-controlled television, either in the form of VOD or DVR will be in 49.6% of U.S. homes.
- When in control, viewers time-shift, skipping up to 92% of the commercials.
- In '05 alone, $6.6 billion worth of ads will be skipped.

The ad industry's reaction? No doubt we're taking heed, fleeing the beach, and heading for higher ground? Hardly. Truth be told, it's more like "pass the SPF 30, I think I'll take a nap."

Not that we can blame this state of complacency entirely on the agencies. If blame is to be placed, the shoulders of the cable ops have to carry their fair share. After all, their positioning of the nonlinear platform could well be the worst case of marketing malfeasance since someone attempted to sell Listerine on the basis of taste.

Go ahead, call up a cable operator. Say you want to put a commercial on the nonlinear platform. Guess how they're going to sell it to you? On impressions. That's right. Viewers. Eyeballs. The same way they're selling linear. (Actually, this shouldn't be too surprising. After all, that's what they know, so that's what they do.)

There's only one small problem: There aren't any viewers... at least not nearly enough to get excited about or create advertising for. Look at it this way, you can get 20 million viewers on "CSI" in one hour or 200,000 viewers over the course of a month on the Home & Garden network. Really, where's the decision?

So, what's the option? Because it's clear that the industry needs to start creating for this platform, and the sooner the better. How about changing the positioning? Offer something in nonlinear that advertisers want that they can't get in linear. In other words, stop trying to explain how the platforms are the same and start explaining how they're actually different. Isn't that how we tell our clients successful brands are built?

What does the nonlinear platform offer that's remotely of interest to an advertiser? Well, let's start with what advertisers tell us they actually want. In the most recent ANA survey, accountability rose to the top of the list of marketers' priorities. In fact, not only did accountability top the list, it was even more important than building strong brand franchises.

Accountability is something that advertisers can't get in the linear platform. But in nonlinear, as viewers gain control over what they watch and when, advertisers gain knowledge as to how many watched and for how long. Monetize this information and what do you have? You guessed it.

Media accountability becomes possible as advertisers will know exactly how many opted-in to a commercial, not just a program. Bye-bye CPM.

What's more, creative accountability becomes a reality as advertisers will be able to pay their agencies based on how long viewers watch for. The longer viewers watch, the more the commercial is worth to an advertiser. Hence, the more they should be willing to pay their agency.

Instead of paying for effort, advertisers will actually be able to pay for outcome. Instead of paying for how long someone at the agency worked on the commercial, they'll be able to pay for how long someone at home watched the commercial.

Think of it as return on involvement rather than return on investment.

No, this doesn't eliminate the fact that the viewing audience is small. But let's face it, once the viewer is in control, once content is scheduleless, the numbers will never be as high on a per-program basis. Instead of advertisers reaching 20 million at one time, say 8:00 p.m.; viewers will now reach advertisers, one at a time, over time.

That's what the shifting of control really means. When the viewer is in control, the economics of scale no longer add up. But the economics of accountability do.

Obviously, some agencies will be less eager than others to embrace the inevitable. Why? Because for the first time, good work will be worth more than bad work. The ability to hide behind research and focus groups will go away. Failure will no longer be lucrative; talking the talk no longer enough.

To the chagrin of many, it will seem as if an unspoken truth has been exposed: For most advertising agencies, it is far more lucrative to be paid for the possibility of success than it is to be paid for the actuality of results.

Unless, of course, they're really, really, really good.

Will the nonlinear platform separate the wheat from the chaff? Yes. Expose the frauds? Yes. Reward the talented? Yes.

At least, it would. If advertisers knew that accountability could be theirs. Which requires the cable ops to stop selling eyeballs and start selling what's really important. You don't sell a Porsche based on miles per gallon. You sell a Porsche based on miles per hour.

Perhaps it's time to stop talking about critical mass and to start realizing that what's critical in the nonlinear platform has nothing to do with mass. It has to do with effectiveness. It has to do with accountability.

Yes, the digital earthquake has occurred. Yes, the tsunami is on its way. And, yes, the warning has been sounded.

But because we don't yet see the wave, we stay comfortably spread out on the beach. "Pass the SPF 30, won't you, luv? Wake me in time for cocktails." Killer wave or killer app?

Exactly how well can you swim?