January 25, 2023
Commentary
What If Russia Wins?
- by Dave Morgan , Featured Contributor, May 23, 2024
Make no mistake: Ukraine is the battlefield for America’s future.
For most Americans, foreign wars tend to be an abstract issue. That is, until our soldiers are “boots on the ground” and the horrible reality of war comes home through their experiences.
So it’s not surprising many have asked over the past two years whether getting involved in the Ukraine-Russia war was in the best interest of the United States, as it is being fought seven time zones away. Thus, many ask questions like: “Aren’t there other priorities for our tens of billions of dollars and our government’s attention?” “Don’t we have to secure our Mexican border first?” “Isn’t this Europe’s fight, not ours?”
We can’t fully appreciate how important it is for America to be involved in helping Ukraine defend itself from the unprovoked Russian invasion, the continuing atrocities it inflicts, and the unhinged rhetoric of its leader if we don’t imagine, at least for argument’s sake, what our world could look like if Russia defeats Ukraine.
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Russia would keep going and trip NATO treaty tripwires. Russia would be expected to leverage its momentum and war-footed, weapons-producing economy and apply pressure on more of its neighbors, probably in the Balkans or Baltics, or both. NATO nations abound in these regions and the U.S. would find itself bound by treaty to send in our troops.
Emboldened China, Iran and North Korea will step up their own regional aggressions. China takes Taiwan. Iran pushes harder on Israel as moderate nations in the Middle East lose their ability to hold Iran back. North Korea, sensing U.S. weakness, intensifies its ransomware cyber attacks against U.S. business and missile launches over Japan and South Korea, seeking economic payoffs from each of them.
World food security crisis. Russia didn’t just invade Ukraine because it wants a buffer zone to NATO; it wants control of one of the world’s greatest food producers. Taken together, Ukraine and Russia produced 30% of the world’s wheat and barley, more than 50% of its sunflower oil and 20% of its corn. No surprise that China is supporting Russia now, with more than $220 billion of trade over the past year, buying oil and food and sending cash and weapons components in return. Are you ready for Russia to control so much of the world’s food?
As noted author and Ukraine expert Timothy Synder tells us, Ukraine is like Czechoslovakia in 1938. If Europe had been able to stop Hitler there, we probably wouldn’t have had a Second World War. But if Ukraine falls, the world is onto a 1939 scenario -- and the possibility of a much bigger war, which might not be stopped in time.
Given the news from Ukraine over the past months, we all know that pushing back the Russians won’t be easy, and will require a lot more support, not just from the U.S., but particularly from other European nations.
To better understand what is likely to be required to keep Russia from winning, I highly recommend this solid piece from Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a top think-tank on international issues, on potential solutions to the five key strategic challenges that it sees to victory in Ukraine today
What can you do to help? Please read the CSIS piece. The better informed we all are, the better our discourse and the better decisions we can all make.
If you agree that supporting Ukraine is in the absolute best interests of the U.S., which I certainly do, please reach out to your Congressional delegation and let them know. Thank those who supported the recent funding package. Let them know you care and are watching. Recommend that they keep the support up.
Finally, if your company outsources software and IT services, see if they use Ukraine firms. They are among the best in the world and, unfortunately, many U.S. companies have stopped doing business in Ukraine over concerns of work interruptions.
Those concerns have been unfounded. Despite Russian attacks against the country’s power infrastructure, Ukraine IT services companies have maintained 98+% uptime, showing incredible tenacity, creativity and super-smart usage of batteries and satellite internet -- and unbelievable, awe-inspiring people that will not be defeated!
Excellent article, Dave. 100% on point. Another way people can help is to stop amplifying Russian propaganda by becoming better versed in spotting it. Sadly, some of our very own elected officials such as Tim Burchett, Tommy Tuberville, JD Vance, Rand Paul to name just a very few, need a lesson on this. Or perhaps they know exactly what they're doing. Either way, it's extraordinarily damaging.
Dave, while I'm 100% behind the Ukrainians against Putin, the more likely outcome is not a Ukrainian "victory" in the sense that it gets back its lost territories, but that it survives as an independent country---even with the loss of the eastern provinces as well as some additional areas that create a "land bridge" to the Russian occupied Crimea.
As for Russia plotting future invasions of eastern Europe, I tend to doubt that. More likely will be a spread of Russian "influence" on the Baltic states and possibly Romania, Slovakia, Hunjgary, etc, in an effort to further weaken NATO. Regarding China, it looms as the larger enemy---but on a longer ranging basis, while Iran is focused on conquering the Suni Arab states---Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the Gulf States --- and bringing them into the Shai fold. Once it accomplishes that goal, it will control most of the Middle East's Oil and use that to blackmail the weak kneed Europeans to keep them buying and otherwise not interfere with its other plans for the region---like wiping out Israel. We should remember that thanks, largely, to the bumbling works of Bush Junior and Obama, Iran now controls, Iraq, Syria, southern Lebanon and its houti allies in Yemen. So it's a very complicated situation we are facing---with Ukraine just part of the equation.
A final point, so long as we keep supporting Ukraine's defense and the war continues as a long, drone affair---like Nam became----Putin is also at great risk of being toppled----the big question being will we continue that support if Trump wins in November? If not and Ukraine is forced to bow---not surrender but come under Russia's influence with a pro Putin PM, no NATO or EU membership, etc.----then we--America--- will really have done ourselves in as this will encourage China and Iran to push forward while our allies are in disarray.
Great points Robert. The Russian propaganda is very sophisticated and we have so many who do t realize how they are being duped and manipulated.
Good points Ed. I think that what is critical is that we enable the Ukrainian government and people to have leverage in negotiating and executing whatever treaty they determine to enter into. And, I agree that there is a certain fragility to Putin, but we've seen other Russia/Soviet leaders last much longer than we thought possible.
Day 822 of the war that I have been following. The real issue in my mind is Europe countries. Many, are not fully onboard with helping Ukraine military. I prefer to think those countries are hoarding their military reserves especially in air defense. Clearly there is the thought that the Americans will supply the war and they will sit out. This attitude may be changing in Europe but their relucance is noticable.
Totally agree Craig. Given how much the Ukraine defense was degraded in the six months without US support, it is clear that many of the European nations can't/won't carry the load that they need to. For sure, steps recently by Sweden and the UK are encouraging. But, they need more.
Dave, today, there have been 500,060 Russian killed. The Russian people know the death rate is very high but not published. I follow 16 English language Ukraine publications on Twitter. I can send you over some if you want. You will read a different side of the war.
Craig, thanks much. I follow many of them too, and am in country right now. It is a different view than most know and get to read or hear about.