• MSNBC, Wednesday, September 5, 2007 10:31 AM

Most people who haven't dabbled in online retailing are likely to stay on the sidelines, which will make it hard for companies to continue the ultra-rapid pace of growth in online retailing, analysts say. The good news is that those who are already comfortable shopping online are likely to funnel more dollars to Web sites.

"Pretty much, most of the people who are ever going to be buying online are online," says Patti Freeman Evans, senior retail analyst with Jupiter Research. Jupiter expects online retailing to dip below double-digit percentage growth rates around 2010, and to plateau after that.

At this point, analysts also expect that traditional, store-based retail will continue to dwarf online retailing. Forrester Research expects U.S. online sales to grow from $132 billion in 2006 to $271 billion in 2011--but still to comprise just 9% of overall retail sales. Most mainstream retailers maintain a Web presence, but many of those online shopping experiences are woefully inadequate, says Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru.

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