• by Michael Shields , December 9, 2004

At this week's UBS Media Week conference in New York, a number of major media companies presented summaries of the past year's performance as well as a look ahead to 2005, specifically in terms of advertising expectations.

But the magazine business was most absent, since most publishers aren't publicly traded or are part of mega multimedia companies like Time Warner (during Time Warner's presentation, the conversation focused mostly on AOL and cable TV).

So given that PIB figures released this week show that magazine ad pages have increased for seven straight months (though November growth had slowed), what are industry insiders expecting for next year?

The one major publisher to present this week, Meredith, spoke about making an effort to increase ad market share following a year where the company outpaced the industry's growth (they were up 5.4 percent through October, and the industry was up 3 percent).

But Meredith President Steve Lacy did make a point that the company's book publishing segment was helping to "reduce our dependency on magazine advertising," - perhaps indicated that those ads are viewed as undependable.

So what are other publishers saying?

"The economy is improving but fragile," said magazine consultant Martin Walker of Walker Communications. "No one understands exactly what will happen."

Walker says that magazine publishers, much like their newspaper counterparts, are cautiously optimistic, yet unable to make many clear predictions.

"Everyone is looking at a better 2005 than 2004," said Walker. "No one thinks next year will be a disaster, but no one thinks things will take off. We are looking at modest increases."

Yet magazine expert Samir Husni, who is also a professor of journalism at the University of Mississippi, is hearing a much different story.

"I have never seen a brighter outlook," he said. "Almost every publisher I have spoken to is so upbeat."

Husni said that the host of new launches in the past six months could be taken as a clear indication that publishers have reason to be confident. "Almost every big company, with the exception of Gruner and Jahr, has plans to launch another magazine," he said.

According to Husni, 250 new titles had launched in the last two months. In addition, three new weeklies emerged in the past two years (In Touch, Life, and Life & Style), where none had launched in the previous decade; Husni takes this as a sign that the industry may finally earn its place in the media buying landscape.

Yet Walker pointed to the lack of stability in the print business as making it harder to predict the future; fewer advertisers are willing to make long-term commitments. "There is no such thing as an annual contract anymore," he said. "Buying decisions tend to be made at the last minute. Publishers are looking at two- to three-month flights."

Meredith Expansion? Meredith, which had already announced plans to launch a new title aimed at the growing female Hispanic audience next fall, strongly hinted that they will consider launching a new title targeting younger women.

"We are particularly interested in reaching younger women and the expanding Hispanic marketplace," said president Steve Lacy. "There are 20 million women between 30 and 40 [in the U.S.]"

Meredith officials also indicated they will be aggressive in pursuing publishing acquisitions in 2005.

A Worthwhile read? A newly launched bi-monthly magazine, Worthwhile, will focus on work.

Specifically, the magazine will aim to target those seeking more fulfillment and inspiration from their careers - "the idea of finding and putting into practice innovative and inspirational ways to make the most of our days between 9 a.m. and 6 p.m." says the company's press release.

Worthwhile is for "people who are no longer willing to put their work lives in a separate compartment and seek meaning and joy on the weekends," says co-founder Anita Sharpe.

Sharpe, a Pulitzer Prize-winning writer for The Wall Street Journal, has partnered with veteran WSJ editor Kevin Salwen to launch the new title.

The first issue includes articles on:

"When Bad Companies Happen to Good People - Living with the stigma of having worked for Enron, Tyco International, Andersen, or WorldCom," -"How to Win Over the Dr. No Boss - When your boss says no to your last five good ideas, here are solutions to turning things around."

Notes:

-Heidi Klum, the host of the new TV show "Project Runway," graces the cover of the latest edition of Salon City Star magazine.

-Lots of change at Organic Style: Carrie Cullen has been appointed executive beauty director. Cullen comes from Gruner & Jahr's Child. Plus, Jennifer Levene Bruno has been appointed national advertising director. Levene Bruno was previously Eastern advertising director at Time Inc.'s This Old House Ventures.

-Forbes has promoted John Weisgerber, formally publisher of American Heritage and Forbes Custom Media, to vice president of corporate sales. Also at Forbes Randi Zuckerberg has been hired in a newly created account executive position focused on corporate integration. She joins Forbes from Ogilvy and Mather.