• by David Kaplan , April 5, 2005

Aside from the fact that the pendulum between reality TV and scripted programming is swinging back toward the latter, the most interesting thing about the 150 shows the six major networks are considering for next season is that one such prospect is titled "Love Monkey"--and it's a drama.

As the major networks prepare for their formal upfront presentations the week of May 16, media buyers have already gotten a sneak peak at the new entertainment offerings, and a number of trends seem to have taken shape.

"Love Monkey," which is slated for CBS, could actually be the signature show of the season. Described as a male version of "Sex and the City" (or perhaps another "Jake's Progress"?), the drama is about four primary friends who are in different stages of a relationship (e.g., married, single, and divorced). Among the cast members are Jason Priestley and Larenz Tate (he played a young Quincy Jones in the movie "Ray") as two of the four friends. The series is seen through the eyes of Tom Cavanagh (of NBC's late, lamented "Ed"), as a "thirtysomething" music producer, who just lost his job and girlfriend.

Like the "Sex and the City" theme, there are a number of proposed shows that share common subject matter, noted Brad Adgate, Horizon Media's senior vice president, corporate research director.

"This year there are two programs dealing with Soccer Moms," Adgate said. "A drama on ABC that is actually called 'Soccer Moms' and on The WB a comedy starring Camryn Manheim called 'Camryn.' And in what is probably a broadcast television first, there are two programs in development that take place in a fertility clinic; both are dramas: NBC's 'Inconceivable' and 'Born & Bred on Fox.'"

Other themes include two eponymous comedies about superstar football players. Bobby Cannon of the Chicago Bears on ABC, and Dante of the fictitious Los Angeles Quakes on NBC. And in what Adgate calls the "Schools" category, there are two comedies and one drama situated in schools. The comedies are "Fillmore Middle" on NBC and an untitled Peter Dinklage program on ABC. The drama is "Bedford Diaries," about a human sexuality college class on The WB.

And while reality shows may have peaked, according to Steve Sternberg, Magna Global's executive vice president and director of audience analysis, a new genre may be created in its wake: the based-on reality show.

One such NBC show focuses on the life experiences of actress Tori Spelling entitled--we're not making this up--NoTORIous. And from shows about actresses' experiences, CBS has a comedy about the real-life experiences of executive producers Ted Cohen and Andrew Reich (and they are, of course, the executive producers of the show), and is about being a third wheel in a relationship. CBS seems to have this genre cornered, as it has an untitled Susan Essman comedy based on her experiences as a comedienne moving from the city to the suburbs. And in the cooking format of this genre, "Kitchen Confidential," a comedy on Fox, is about chef Anthony Bourdain, and is taken from the title of his bestselling book. Finally--perhaps inspired by his recent hosting of the Academy Awards--is "Everybody Hates Chris," a comedy on UPN about the childhood experiences of comedian Chris Rock.

Most networks have at least three reality series in development, but Sternberg said he believes the tide has shifted back to reality series.

"Last season, the reality genre hit its peak," Sternberg said. "In addition to 'American Idol,' 'Survivor,' and 'Fear Factor'--all established hits--we had 'The Apprentice' take off, with 'Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,' 'My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiancé,' 'The Simple Life,' and 'America's Next Top Model' joining the top tier. 'Average Joe' and 'Celebrity Mole' were also reasonably successful. This season, only 'American Idol,' 'Survivor,' and 'Extreme Makeover: Home Edition' are living up to or exceeding their previous performance."

Meanwhile, Sternberg noted, "The Apprentice" has slipped from last season--which could augur poorly for the NBC's spin-off starring Martha Stewart--and "Fear Factor" has been hurt by the string of reality series thrown against it this season.

"There is no question that reality series are filling a greater percentage of the broadcast network programming," Sternberg said. "Five years ago, reality shows accounted for 5 percent of the six network schedules. This season, that number has grown to 18 percent. Reality is also accounting for an increased percentage of available rating points, particularly among viewers under 35--going from 6 percent to 23 percent of adult 18-34 rating points. Nevertheless, these increases are not really coming at the expense of scripted series."

Comedies and dramas tend to fluctuate--when there's more of one, there's generally less of the other, Sternberg said. Comparing October 2004-March 2005 to the same period five years ago--despite the amount of prime-time broadcast hours taken up by reality series increasing from 5 percent to 18 percent--the amount of hours devoted to scripted comedy and drama combined actually increased slightly, from 52 percent to 54 percent.

"The increase in the percentage of the broadcast network schedule for reality series has come primarily at the expense of movies, game shows, and news magazines, which fell from 28 percent to 14 percent over the past five seasons," Sternberg said. "Among persons 12-34, reality shows accounted for a record 23 percent of prime-time broadcast network rating points, which was up from just 6 percent in the 2000/01 season--but again, came much more at the expense of movies, game shows, and news magazines than from scripted series."