• by Aaron Paquette , Columnist, December 15, 2021

Since 2007, the U.S. has experienced a profound baby bust. That year, which gave us the iPhone, also gave us 4.32 million births, narrowly edging out the peak baby boom year of 1957 as the most fertile in U.S. history. But since then, we’ve seen a slow and steady decline to just 3.75 million babies born in 2019, the fewest since 1986. And the CDC estimates that in COVID-impacted 2020, live births fell further to 3.6 million, as the expected uptick in “COVID babies” conceived during quarantine failed to materialize.

Don’t look now, but the long-awaited millennial baby boom might finally be here. COVID inspired many young adults to leave big-city apartments and buy houses in the suburbs. The Millennial generation is now between the ages of 25 and 40, prime years for having kids. Many white-collar workers emerged from COVID more financially secure than before, and with more flexible working arrangements where they can do their jobs mostly or entirely from home. Today’s blue-collar workers enjoy a seller’s market for their talent. And perhaps the events of the last two years have reinforced the importance of family.

In a November research report, Bank of America notes that sales of pregnancy tests are up by an average of 13% year-over-year, compared to average growth of 2% from 2016-2019. Live births increased 3.3% in June, the highest increase since 2013. And in a recent survey, 11.3% of respondents said they were expecting a child or trying to conceive, the highest rate in the year that the survey has fielded.

Bank of America suggests these trends carry positive implications for grocers, big-box retailers and warehouse clubs that sell baby-related merchandise or are near millennials settling in the suburbs. Walmart, Target, Albertsons, Kroger, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and BJ’s Wholesale Club are all potential beneficiaries of a fast-growing baby-products market, currently estimated at $1.7 billion.

How can brands better connect with millennial moms and dads?

*Represent millennial parents. Don’t show young, childless millennials meeting up for avocado toast; show them on play dates and shuffling kids to after-school activities. Don’t show them at Coachella; show them at backyard birthday parties. Represent their lifestage authentically in your marketing campaign and remember to reflect the diversity of today’s families: most children today are people of color, and many are raised by a single parent, or two parents of the same gender.

*Promote new use cases. A childless millennial might order a Coke at a restaurant, while one with kids might buy a liter bottle for the pantry. A childless Amazon Prime customer might subscribe mostly for streaming video and free shipping, while a new parent might upgrade to Amazon Fresh to keep food in the house. A childless Honda driver might favor a racy Civic Si, while one with kids might find that the CR-V or Pilot fits their needs better. Consider how a parent might use your brands differently, and communicate those differences in your marketing.

*Reflect their values. They’re becoming parents, but they’re still millennials, and they’re going to “do parenting” differently than previous generations. Does your baby/parent brand help combat climate change? Is it made of green materials? Does it support pro-social causes? Can parents order it frictionlessly from their mobile devices, or subscribe to it as a service? Does it have a social/community-building aspect? Is it led by a diverse group of executives? Millennial parents will be keeping long scorecards, and brands will need to speak to their needs, not those of boomers in 1980, or Gen X in 2000.

The baby boom is finally here, and the brands that best capitalize on it will boom, too.