• Wall Street Journal, Monday, April 6, 2009 11 AM

If you're counting on a period of The New Wastrality after the current economic downturn ends, think again. "There's good reason to believe Americans will be saving more in the next decade than they did in the last one," writes Kelly Evans with studies, a few experts and some anecdotes in tow. While continued frugality could restore some balance to a world economy, it could also spell trouble for retailers, restaurants and luxury-goods makers that rely on consumers to spend freely.

A U.S. Spending Monitor survey by Discover that will be released Wednesday finds that about 35% of consumers surveyed in March said they expect to reduce their debt levels over the next six months, and a third said they have already done so -- even though their outlook on the economy has improved. One in three said they would put the money freed up by lower loan payments into savings.

Here's the requisite caveat: Surveys aren't always accurate predictors of real-life behavior. "If you ask people how much they're going to save next month or next year you always get optimistic answers," says Ravi Dhar, director of Yale's Center for Customer Insights. "The same way smokers always say 'next year I'm going to stop.'"

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