• Mediaweek, Tuesday, June 9, 2009 9:30 AM

In recent years, the July 4 holiday marked the end of the upfront, but this time around, most network executives believe serious negotiations won't even begin until July 1.

Early indicators suggest the upfront marketplace will prove to be slow-moving and contentious, as both sides remain at an impasse on pricing. ABC, CBS and Fox are looking to secure price hikes of 7% to 10% or more. On the other side, media buyers refuse to consider any rate increases. They say they will cut deals at flat-to-negative CPMs versus last year, across both broadcast and cable.

Media sales executives are shaking their heads. "The agencies are going to want to be really careful about what they bring to the market," says one. "If they really want to press it, if they really think they're going to get rollbacks on volume and pricing, then [forget] it...I'll just hold back for scatter." Another sales executive says that nearly every scenario shows cable profiting from a squeeze on the broadcast nets. "The longer the sides stare each other down, the more likely a bunch of these guys are going to say '[forget] it, let's buy our cable now'."

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