• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, February 5, 2011

Jerry Rocha from Nielsen steps up to close out the conference with a look at mobile trends for 2011. Nielsen is sticking with its forecast of smartphones surpassing 50% penetration by the third or fourth quarter, accelerated by the introduction of the Verizon iPhone this month. 45% of mobile users bought a smartphone in the last quarter. Among mobile activities, Rocha highlighted the growth of video, with 38% and 37% of iPhone and Android users, respectively, watching video now. That's good news for the likes of YouTube and Hulu.

Android's explosive growth will be a continuing trend in 2011. The Google platform increased market share 36% in the last quarter and 625% year-over-year. Android phones are also helping to drive greater usage. A BlackBerry owner that was using just 4 or 5 megabits a month and then switches to Android could shoot up to using 120 mbps, with much higher media consumption. Wi-Fi usage on mobile will also continue to grow as carriers shift more traffic to Wi-Fi networks to alleviate congestion on 3G networks.

When it comes to the spread of tablets, Rocha expects the new format will have a big impact on publishers and advertisers as ads become measured increasingly based on engagement and ad effectiveness criteria like brand or message recall. He pointed to a Campbell's campaign that showed the iAd scored higher in those kind of criteria than broadcast or TV ads. The novelty factor has to play some factor in that.