• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 3, 2015

Looks like value shopping may be moving to the head of the class this year: In its early tracking of where parents intend to do most of their kids’ back-to-school shopping, YouGov’s BrandIndex says Walmart, Target and Old Navy are leading other retailers. And in a surprise twist, Sears is coming on strong, pulling ahead of higher-end chains, such as Macy’s, as well as some off-price stores, including Marshalls.

But as stores intensify their marketing campaigns and tweak pricing, YouGov’s experts expect that there will be plenty of shifts in the weeks leading up to Labor Day. 

BrandIndex ranks retailers on both purchase consideration ("When you are in the market next to purchase from a retailer, from which of the following brands would you consider purchasing?”) as well as value (“Does it give good value for what you pay?").

Not only are Walmart and Target in first and second place, they are also both significantly ahead of their rankings last year at this time, with 62% of parents saying they’d consider shopping at Walmart, and 53% would choose Target. (Last year, just 44% of parents in the survey said they’d consider buying from Target, further evidence that the retailer is making progress in its effort to turn perceptions around.) In third place is Old Navy, with 39% of parents considering shopping there.

Ranked on value, Walmart comes in first, followed by Old Navy and then Target, Kohl’s and J.C. Penney. And Sears, which has been on the ropes for years, had the biggest gain in value perception of all the 28 retailers in the study. (Separately, Sears announced more disappointing results, with same-store sales at its Kmart unit falling 6.9% for the quarter, and sales at its Sears stores tumbling 13.9%.) The jump in value ranking puts Sears just behind Both J.C. Penney and Kohl’s.

Abercrombie + Fitch came in last place, with Bloomingdales, Hollister, Hot Topic, Wet Seal, Urban Outfitters, Charlotte Russe, J. Crew, Saks, Neiman Marcus and Banana Republic all ranked closely, and clustered at the bottom of the heap in terms of both value and purchase consideration.

Meanwhile, Walmart says it is already seeing BTS traffic on its website surge, and that it’s hoping to tempt even more shoppers with a Back to Class Cyber Days online promotion, featuring 30% more rollbacks than usual. “When the calendar changes from July to August, it’s like a switch flips in parents’ minds,” says Steve Breen, Walmart.com’s SVP/merchandising, in a release. “We can literally start to see it happen with a traffic spike on July 31.”