More Legacy TV Cord Cutting To Come

TV disruption isn’t over -- not even close.

Roku says half all U.S. homes will be cord cutters or cord-nevers by 2024. That would be around 60 million homes -- a bold prediction.

Given Roku's revenue track -- 50% revenue growth last year and into next -- that works out well for the set-top box/streaming smart TV service, where consumers can access over 1,000 different apps/platforms.

Roku is in a good position as a low-cost aggregator of TV networks/apps/platform through which one can choose, drop and add subscriptions, both free and paid, every month if they want.

Other choices for customers: They can go directly to Netflix, Disney+, CBS All Access, or to other aggregators, such as Amazon Fire TV and Apple TV, two major Roku competitors.

Like Roku, Fire TV and Apple TV take a portion of revenue from every sign-up the various services receive.



Others are coming, including Comcast’s Flex and YouTube. They will allow access to third-party subscriptions like Netflix, Hulu, Showtime, HBO and others.

YouTube would seem to a big entry to the group. It already has 20 million paid premium subscribers -- a combination of YouTube Premium and YouTube Music -- as well as 2 million subscribers on its internet TV service, YouTube TV.

A year ago, eMarketer predicted even faster cutting, estimating the number of households without pay TV will hit 56.1 million in 2023, while those with traditional pay services will fall to 72.7 million.

Sounds like a lot of freedom to come. But is it really?

Those looking to cut the cord will merely give their new cord connection to other new TV network/app aggregators -- though with more options, appealing to consumers' a la carte wishes.

What happens after that? Will that disruption and more option-seeking consumers move to another wave of TV-video models? 

To turn on a longtime common industry phrase: Stay un-tuned.

1 comment about "More Legacy TV Cord Cutting To Come".
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  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, February 18, 2020 at 9:37 a.m.

     Wayne, our own estimate is that by 2025 only half of U.S. TV homes will be "pay TV" households. And the percentage may be even lower. However, a significant segment---currently approaching 15%----will be getting over-the-air reception, meaning that they will receive broadcast TV content---and ads. Also, AVOD is coming to the streaming arena in a big way. As we point out to our "TV Dimensions 2020" subscribers, it's going to be a very interesting next five years.

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