• by Wayne Friedman , July 13, 2007

TV stations can only cheer the growth of political advertising in recent years.

This year, the political TV ad market continues to grow at a faster pace than at a comparable year in 2005. In addition, the 2008 presidential advertising season looks to break even more TV political advertising spending records.

Overall, TV political spending is expected to rise to $700 million in 2007, up from $450 million in 2005. But the biggest numbers will come next year--a presidential year--with TV spending possibly going to a least $1.8 billion versus $1.65 billion in 2006. (Political advertising analysts look at trends in two year cycles.)

"We continue to see the threshold to expand," said Evan Tracey, COO of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, in speaking on a conference call directed by investment banker Bear Stearns.

So far, media spending for mayoral, senate, governor and issue advocacy advertisers are much higher than previous years. As an example, for mayoralty races, a collective $17.5 million has been spent to date--a fivefold increase over a comparable period in 2003, said Tracey.

About $10.8 million has been spent for 11 Governor races--on track to reach $18 million by November. Local and state race spending is at $19.3 million with state issue campaigns at $50.7 million right now. Also, Tracey notes that campaigns are typically staying on the air for longer periods of time.

The biggest impact at present comes from issue-advocacy spending. So far in 2007, federal issues have spent $196.5 million. But that could go higher. In June, the Supreme Court overturned a provision in the McCain/Feingold election law that restricted companies and groups in buying certain advertising.

"It'll bring impulse buying back to the process," said Tracey. He quoted one source who noted the result could possibly double political expenditures overall in 2008 over 2004.

"I don't know if it's going to double, but it has the potential for a significant increase," says Jan Baran, partner of Wiley Rein LLP, who focuses on federal, state and local campaign finance laws, and was also part of the Bear Stearns phone conference.

Significantly adding to the political advertising picture could come from the wild card that is New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg. If he decides to enter the presidential race, there have been reports that he might spend an eye-popping $1 billion.

"It'll just add more fuel to the fire," says Tracey.