• by Wayne Friedman , April 6, 2009

Although many press reports claim that TV viewing is stable -- if not up a bit -- it is still a tale of two media, says Steve Sternberg, executive vice president and audience analysis for Magna, in a recent report.

Broadcast ratings continue to sink -- anywhere from 5% to 10% this season, depending on the networks. Kids and Teens viewing have shown steeper declines. The beneficiaries? Ad-supported cable.

For the broadcast networks, this current season has seen some of the same trends of recent years. Fox maintains its leadership with viewers 35 and under; CBS does the same for viewers 35+.

Each network has specific needs to improve next season. Sternberg writes: "Given its lack of new series success, ABC could be in big trouble if its key female dramas, "Grey's Anatomy," "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives" continue to slip."

ABC needs to come up with series that can replace two hours of "Dancing with the Stars" when it goes off in the first quarter, he notes.

In recent seasons, ABC tried to schedule shows with more dual audience -- appealing to men and women. But many of these shows have failed, including "Pushing Daisies," "Dirty Sexy Money," "Eli Stone," and "Life on Mars." The jury is still out on "Castle."

While ABC continues to lead among women 18-49, but just barely over CBS and Fox, Sternberg says ABC could be in trouble next season. It may not be the top among any key female demos.

CBS has had great consistency, says Sternberg, in part because of its scripted series success. Regular-season reality shows "Survivor" and "Amazing Race" are sturdy performers, but they are not as crucial to the network's success as other shows.

This past season, scripted entertainment comprised 18 of CBS' 22-hour schedule -- 82% -- the best of all networks. NBC was next at 13.5 hours, or 61%; with ABC at 10.5 hours, or 48%. Fox was the lowest, with 8 hours of its 15 as scripted series, or 53%. CW had 10 of its 13 hours -- 77% -- as scripted entertainment series.

But Sternberg warns CBS that "gradual audience declines can lead to a number of series that can be considered borderline. Stability often leads to conservatism, and the network may start to leave shows on the air too long, when a new show might do better."

In recent years, one of the better decisions for NBC was in getting "Sunday Night Football." But the network can't figure out how to replace it with other programming in the first quarter -- when its ratings generally start to decline.

It made sense at NBC to air escapist fare that drew men, much like "Sunday Night Football." This genre includes: "Heroes," "Chuck," "My Own Worst Enemy," "Knight Rider," "Crusoe," "Merlin" and "Kings." Yet all have either been canceled or may be. "Heroes" has declined in viewership; "Chuck" is barely treading water.

In regard to its move of Jay Leno to 10 p.m. -- which has stirred a firestorm of comment -- Sternberg says if ratings maintain what NBC's dramas have done in recent years, NBC will consider it a success. With more original programming in that time period, NBC may do well when the other networks are opting for repeats.

Fox continues to produce industry-leading numbers, as well as delivering young and male viewers. Going forward, Sternberg sees problems with Fox for scripted shows. This season, with "Fringe," however -- and to a lesser extent, "Lie To Me" -- Fox seems to have improved in that quarter.

Fox's "American Idol" still carries ratings weight. This season, "House" was somewhat hurt early on, losing some steam in and after the Major League Baseball playoffs. All of this means Fox could use another scripted series.

CW has been revived in part this past season. "Gossip Girl" and "One Tree Hill" have improved versus a year ago, contributing to the network lifting to a 1.8 rating in the fourth quarter among women 18-49 versus a 1.5 in fourth-quarter 2007.

While "90210" gets a lot of press, he says its numbers are still barely getting to a 1.0 rating among women 18-49. "America's Next Top Model" still brings good numbers -- although down from recent seasons.

If the network wants another good story next season, it needs to improve growth of "90210," he says, and add at least one new success -- possibly the new "Melrose Place."