• by Sam Armando , January 29, 2010

I'm concerned by what's happening in the local measurement space, particularly the potential elimination of the Live data stream from Nielsen's local program ratings offerings. And I'm not the only one.

There's been a great deal of back and forth on the matter of late, but for all our different perspectives, we need to get on the same page. At the core of industry-wide confusion and dissent is this: Most of the debate doesn't acknowledge or center of certain fundamental truths:

·All the Nielsen local streams in question are Program ratings. ·Marketers need and deserve Commercial ratings, to accurately gauge the value of their local ad investments. ·The local Live stream is a program rating, but it's the stream closest to the Commercial ratings, which Nielsen won't provide. ·As such, marketers need the Live stream because it is the best option Nielsen is currently providing -- or, well, might be providing.

This is not to say program ratings don't have their place. In fact, stations need Live+7 ratings to gauge the success of their program and make smart schedule decisions. Yet somehow, by mysterious "popular demand," plans to abandon the Live ratings marketers need, instead preserving a Live+3 Program ratings stream that is not reflective of commercial viewing behaviors.

Despite some stations claims to the contrary, agencies do not want to eliminate the Live + Same Day data stream -- evidenced by a recent Media Daily News Commentary from Lyle Schwartz. Unfortunately, the debate has taken a wrong turn, focusing on which stream should be kept alive: Live Program or Live + Same Day Program. Out of fairness to marketers and their money, we need to shift the discussion toward the preservation of Live versus Live+3, assuming a stream has to go.

Note: I did not say the inclusion of Live + Same Day is erroneous, but limiting negotiations to one data stream definitely is. It's a multifaceted world, and one stream does not fit all.

We're in this business to get consumers to see commercials, and it's time we agreed to act like it. Whether you are a buyer or a seller, we can all agree that is the ultimate goal. Yet, we're at a crossroad. Advertisers do not want to pay for people who don't watch their ads. Sellers want credit for viewers that watch on a time-shifted basis. Both are understandable concerns.

We know that with any Live+ stream, we are overestimating the commercial viewing habit because the data is program-based. The likelihood consumers are forwarding through commercials is estimated to be anywhere from 40% to 60%. Still, in a recent commentary, it was asked that we not forget the role of negotiation. Are we really being asked to reconcile the differences in ratings on the back-end of the process rather than improve the methodology that feed those discussions? How can you start a fair debate when you know the premise is flawed? You can't.

Nielsen's call to eliminate the local Live Program stream is irresponsible, short-sighted and antiquated. In general, Nielsen should not be setting currency. To make matters worse, instead of looking for commercial measurement, they're trying to reconcile their three local methodologies (LPM, set top and diary) -- creating a scenario in which the remaining three streams would all be time-shifted data, severely hindering negotiations and future data comparisons.

In an attempt to bring some clarity to this ongoing debate, I've addressed some of the confusion in hopes of correcting misperceptions.

Point: There is a lift in audience due to the advancement of DVRs.

Counterpoint: Shame on Nielsen and all others that have flooded the discussion with Program data masked as Commercial data. The fact that program ratings "lift" as much as 8% when Live + Same Day viewing is included is irrelevant to the debate. It is Program data. Agencies are not in the business of paying for people who watch the Program, and sellers should not be in the business of charging agencies for them.

Point: On a national level, the Live stream is no longer the closest substitute for C3.

Counterpoint: There has been a lot of data discussed and because it remains unclear exactly what data was used, we'll share an SMG analysis. We found, when comparing national Live data and Live + Same Day Program ratings to C3 ratings, the Live Program rating was closer to C3 64% of the time and the difference was the same 5% of the time. That leaves the Live + SD rating closer to C3 only 31% of the time. The study looked at a variety of content from 4Q '09: 1,374 programs across four dayparts and three demographics.

Point: As DVR penetration continues to climb, the Live stream becomes less relevant.

Counterpoint: As DVR penetration continues to climb, more people have the opportunity to skip ads. Regardless of which point you agree with, each supports the notion of keeping both data streams. If Live + Same Day does better represent commercial viewing one day, it should be welcomed with open arms, but currently it does not. Remember, the goal here is not to use a smaller rating -- it's to use a rating that best reflects commercial viewing. The numbers support Live program data, but both streams must exist to keep the comparison alive.

Point: Nielsen will only reconsider its position if both buyers and sellers come together.

Counterpoint: Buyers and sellers were not "together" when Nielsen made the decision to eliminate the local Live program data in the transactional systems. Why call for industry-wide harmony after the decision was made without it? Besides, buyers are in harmony that we want Live ratings and don't care about the three Plus streams.

Seems to me it's up to sellers to get in harmony and figure out what "Plus" stream to eliminate. After all, sellers somehow created consensus and got Nielsen to create a fourth stream of data that isn't applied in the market. So the sellers created the Nielsen capacity problem, but Nielsen says buyers and marketers have to give something up? It just doesn't make sense.

If there are capacity issues Nielsen needs to address in selecting what streams to preserve, that's understandable. But agencies require the stream closest to commercial ratings to assure clients they're not paying for skipped commercials. Process of elimination shows that Live+3 data is the odd stream out.