• by Erik Sass , Staff Writer @eriksass1, February 3, 2011

The Egyptian revolution has inspired a flurry of debate, even though everyone basically agrees on the fundamental points. If I may summarize the consensus that emerged from people angrily, heatedly agreeing: Social media played a role, but obviously it didn't make the revolution. Human beings did that.  Duh.

In the unlikely event someone out there thinks Twitter and Facebook can make a revolution all by themselves, it may be useful to examine a test case alongside Egypt. And the world is full of test cases, in the form of nasty authoritarian regimes which are not, currently, being convulsed by revolution -- often despite the best efforts of social media activists. Just take your pick.

That's exactly what the Miami Herald did this week with an interesting article about the limited success of a Web-based call for uprising in Cuba, called Por el Levantamiento Popular en Cuba ("For a Popular Uprising in Cuba"), which was created by Cuban exiles on January 26, as mass dissent was toppling the government of Tunisia and engulfing Egypt.

The online call to arms, which included aggressive Facebook and Twitter promotions, featured a statement of purpose calling for a revolution -- "without violence, with the people going into the streets not only on the island but in front of (Cuban) consulates and embassies, lighting a spark to provoke a social explosion that moves Cuba toward democracy."

Sounds like a good idea, and there are some similarities between Egypt and Cuba. Both are ruled by oppressive governments that stifle dissent through fear; both don't hesitate to brutalize, imprison, torture and even murder critics; both are decades overdue for a change. But so far, Cuba has nada on the revolution radar.

This could change, of course -- and no one would be happier than me -- but for now, Cuba is a useful counter-example showing the limits of social media, and media in general. Internet penetration remains low in Cuba, and the Herald reports that Cuba's government has been careful to stifle any reports of the events in Egypt on broadcast TV. At the same time, Cubans may be placated by recent moves toward limited free market and democratic reforms under Fidel Castro's brother Raul.

Of course, fear is probably the main factor in keeping Cubans out of the streets. The Herald noted that most of the comments posted on the Web site come from people (safely) outside Cuba. If words alone could topple authoritarian regimes, the Castros would be long gone -- but it takes a little more than lip service.