• by Wayne Friedman , November 1, 2007

From a TV advertising perspective, the new TV programming season has been confusing, even as marketers feel--more or less--that they've won a major battle in getting networks to agree to commercial ratings.

In looking at live program ratings for the first five weeks of the season--September 24 through October 28--according to a new report from Magna Global USA, the five broadcast networks are down a massive 11% in 18-49 ratings, while ad-supported cable is up 1%.

Live program numbers are still a concern for some marketers and their media-buying agencies. As those live numbers continue to drop in the wake of DVR penetration, it is less likely those viewers are watching live commercials.

But that's not the whole picture, says Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis for Magna Global. When analyzing the live-plus-seven-day program average for total viewers, Sternberg writes: "We see that overall television usage isn't down at all from last season. It's up 1%." He says broadcast networks are down 4%, with ad-supported cable up 2%.

Looking at live-plus seven-day data among the key 18-49 demo, ABC still leads all networks with 4.0, but it's down 2% versus a year ago. CBS is in second place at a 3.6, down 10%. Fox has the most to crow about--up 21% to a 3.6. NBC is next at a 3.5, off 6%. The CW comes in with a 1.3, down 13%. Overall, Sternberg says usage among 18-49 viewers is up 1%.

Better still are the 18-34 viewers. Among live-plus-seven-day, broadcast networks are 3% off versus a year ago--down 10% in looking at just live program numbers.

Fox has the best numbers here: a 3.3, up 28% versus a year ago. At the bottom of the list is the CW. Its 18-34 numbers are off 22% to a 1.4 live-plus-seven-day program rating, and its women 18-34 viewers are down 23% to a 1.7 rating. Cable networks also improved here--up 8% for those 18-34 viewers. All tallied, TV usage is up 4%.