• by Wayne Friedman , November 7, 2007

TV advertisers don't need to worry for the next two months concerning the writer's strike. But 2008 would be another story.

"We are good shape for the fourth quarter," says Jim Hoffman, senior vp of entertainment sales for NBC. Other network sales executives also expect little disruption concerning TV advertisers' deals in the next couple of months.

Broadcast networks will have little to no programming troubles for the November sweeps, as original prime-time programming will run as scheduled. December won't be much of a problem--it's a month when 40% of network schedules are in reruns. Also in that month, regularly scheduled programming is rested to run limited-series reality shows or one-time specials.

All that means little to no effect on ratings for the end of the year. But starting in January, the number of makegoods will start to escalate, as the dearth of original programming of major prime-time shows will mean fewer ratings points.

"If there is no fresh scripted programming in January that's no good," says one veteran media agency executive. "I hear half of Fox' "24" episodes have been shot. But I wouldn't run them and then stop in the middle. You don't want to damage your franchise. Look at what happened to 'Lost.' People went elsewhere."

Where will advertisers go in search of rating points as a result of a multi-month long strike? Cable and syndication are choices, according to media executives. Perhaps some primetime advertisers will move into live sporting events or news, which should be virtually unaffected by the strike.

One group of marketers with immediate problems are entertainment marketers. They run plenty of advertising during late night talk shows, such as NBC's "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," CBS' "Late Show with David Letterman," and Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart."

Those shows immediately went into reruns on Monday, which leaves theatrical films and DVD marketers, who buy heavily into those young skewing shows, in the lurch. That means lower ratings, with entertainment marketers desperately searching for more consumer advertising impressions.

"We'll work with them," says Hoffman.

While many film and DVD marketers made upfront buys--and have guaranteed ratings agreements in those contracts--film marketers also buy heavily in scatter to adjust their media plans on the fly after analyzing daily consumer research. Another problem is that those scatter buys have no guaranteed ratings as part of their deals.

Fox, CBS, ABC, and the CW executives had no official comment concerning the effect on the strike on advertisers' media plans.