Autos Jam Breaks, Category Spending Skids Out Of Control

The American economy has slowed dramatically lately. Some of the major measures of economic performance are down--drastically--especially in key categories like cars and home sales.

economy chart In September, new vehicle sales were down about 25% compared to the same month last year, judging by the figures from Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota and Honda.

Most of the big automakers exceeded the pessimistic expectations of Wall Street, with Ford posting an alarming 33.8% drop, Toyota down 32%, and Honda down 24%.Only GM did better than expected, and this success was only relative: it saw a mere 16% decline, thanks in part to a promotion that offered consumers the same prices as employees in honor of its 100th anniversary. This makes September the 11th straight month of declining auto sales.

Existing home sales have also continued their long decline, but the sharp drop that began in 2006 may be bottoming out, as the year-over-year drops in the annualized rate of sales are not as steep as they used to be.

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From a 17.5% drop in April, the decline has gradually slowed to 10.7% in August, the latest month for which figures are available, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Finally, the Consumer Board's leading index--an average of two dozen indicators that forecasts economic prospects for the next several years--has declined steadily since May, dropping from 102.1 to 100.8. The index is based on a system using 2004 as a baseline of "100."

Back in May, Ken Goldstein, an economist with the Conference Board, remarked: "The Leading Index points to slow growth through the rest of the year, and possibly an economy grinding to a halt... If there's a second-half recovery, it will be the second half of 2009."

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