Commentary
Pique TV
- by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, July 13, 2023
Peak TV, a term coined by FX Networks CEO John Landgraf to describe the ascent of original scripted programming, which based on last year's count, tallies some 600 series on broadcast, cable and streaming platforms.
Should the writers get what they're looking for, it would add significantly to the series production and/or licensing costs of legacy TV and streaming services, at a time when many of the latter already are taking billion dollar losses.
That could lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy predicted by Landgraf for more than a decade now that Peak TV is not an indefinitely sustainable proposition. Among other things, he has cited the prospect of increasingly higher marketing costs, weakening viewer sampling, and ultimately fewer viewers regularly engaging with ongoing TV series.
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The writers strike affects all premium TV platforms -- streamers and legacy linear TV networks alike -- including Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, as well as Disney+, Paramount+, Peacock, and Max.
And it could get worse with members of the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA) now in strike mode as well.
Rich Greenfield of LightShed Partners said he is surprised none of the big legacy and/or streaming platform chiefs seem in any hurry to resolve this issue.
I think I know why. Executives believe with an overabundance of premium content out there, consumers won't necessarily feel the difference, at least in the near term. In fact, some consumers may already be frustrated that there are many quality TV shows available that they can view on a near real-time basis.
What would cause an alarm for TV executives? Consumers frantically switching back and forth among streaming platforms. Or as I'm coining it, "Peak Churn.
This column has been updated.
Wayne Friedman is West Coast Editor of MediaPost. You can reach Wayne at wayne@mediapost.com.
Wayne, when you look at the various studies that explore why consumers subscribe to or use streaming services, it's pretty clear that cost considerations are paramount, not the appeal of "peak TV" shows. In fact the "audience" surveys tell us that "peak TV" shows account for very little of the average streamer's total streaming activity---the percents vary from almost zero for many services to anywhere from 20-40% for a Netflix---depending on whose data you use.
The problem with all of the surveys is that respondents tend to give answers that are not born out by their actual behavior--especially where viewing time is involved. Also, there is an inherent bias in these studies as responents tend to overclaim their interest in "original" dramas and movies as this positions them as more elitist in the eyes of the rsearchers---or so many respondents seem to believe.
Net, net, I don't think that a reduction in the number of "peak TV" shows is going to hurt streaming as much as other issues, namely the need by the services to raise prices in their quest for profitability, the influx of heavy viewing oldsters and low brows who are finally cutting the cord like the light viewing, younger and affluent early adopters did a number of years ago, and the sheer number of services, including many FASTs, which will make it more difficult for SVODs and AVODs to maintain high subscriber counts. In short, there are plusses--more heavy viewers and negatives like higher pricing at work and the former may outweigh the latter in the long run as streaming becomes merely a more refined extension of good old "TV".